{"id":1315,"date":"2015-12-30T09:47:17","date_gmt":"2015-12-30T09:47:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=1315"},"modified":"2016-01-14T16:24:34","modified_gmt":"2016-01-14T16:24:34","slug":"oil-price-fallpump-deflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2015\/12\/oil-price-fallpump-deflation\/","title":{"rendered":"La baisse des cours du p\u00e9trole n\u2019alimente pas la d\u00e9flation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Si l\u2019inflation est rest\u00e9e faible dans les principaux pays occidentaux malgr\u00e9 la vigueur de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, c\u2019est notamment parce que les cours du p\u00e9trole ont recul\u00e9. Et, fait int\u00e9ressant, m\u00eame s\u2019ils se sont montr\u00e9s extr\u00eamement volatils sur les 18\u00a0derniers mois, ces prix influent de moins en moins sur l\u2019inflation finale.<\/p>\n

Au Royaume-Uni, c\u2019est par le biais du prix des carburants que les cours du p\u00e9trole ont l\u2019impact le plus direct sur l\u2019inflation\u00a0: toute baisse des co\u00fbts de production entra\u00eene une baisse des prix \u00e0 la pompe. Mais ces derniers ne varient pas qu\u2019en fonction des cours du brut\u00a0: ils d\u00e9pendent \u00e9galement des frais de transport, de la marge du distributeur et, surtout, des diff\u00e9rentes taxes. Selon petrolprices.com<\/a>, le prix d\u2019un litre d\u2019essence est compos\u00e9 des \u00e9l\u00e9ments suivants\u00a0:<\/p>\n

Taxes\u00a0: 57,95\u00a0pence<\/p>\n

Produit\u00a0: variable<\/p>\n

Distribution\/livraison\u00a0: 5\u00a0pence<\/p>\n

TVA\u00a0: 20\u00a0%<\/p>\n

Sur la base de cette r\u00e9partition, nous pouvons \u00e9tudier les r\u00e9percussions des fluctuations des produits p\u00e9troliers sur l\u2019inflation globale. Le graphique ci-dessous illustre les cons\u00e9quences des variations des cours du p\u00e9trole sur les prix \u00e0 la pompe.<\/p>\n

\"Impact<\/a><\/p>\n

Sans surprise, la relation n\u2019est pas lin\u00e9aire. Plus les cours du p\u00e9trole reculent, moins ils influent sur les prix des carburants, puisqu\u2019ils repr\u00e9sentent une part de plus en plus limit\u00e9e de la facture totale \u00e0 la pompe. Cons\u00e9quence\u00a0: alors qu\u2019une chute de\u00a050\u00a0% (de\u00a0160 \u00e0 80\u00a0dollars) des cours du brut se traduit par un recul d\u2019environ\u00a035\u00a0% du prix de l\u2019essence (de\u00a0267 \u00e0 172\u00a0pence), une nouvelle baisse de proportion similaire (de\u00a080 \u00e0 40\u00a0dollars) entra\u00eene un recul de seulement\u00a028\u00a0%. Et un troisi\u00e8me fl\u00e9chissement (de\u00a040 \u00e0 20\u00a0dollars), de tout juste\u00a019\u00a0%. M\u00eame si le taux de change livre sterling\/dollar joue \u00e9galement sur les prix \u00e0 la pompe (le prix du p\u00e9trole \u00e9tant fix\u00e9 en dollars), les \u00e9l\u00e9ments ci-dessus montrent que la chute des cours entrave de moins en moins l\u2019inflation.<\/p>\n

La faiblesse des cours du p\u00e9trole a \u00e9galement un effet secondaire\u00a0: les prix baissant, leur pourcentage dans la base de calcul de l\u2019inflation d\u00e9cline, ce qui signifie que les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie sont de moins en moins significatifs pour l\u2019inflation globale.<\/p>\n

Le mouvement baissier des cours du p\u00e9trole touche progressivement \u00e0 sa fin, et leur effet sur l\u2019inflation s\u2019amenuise au fur et \u00e0 mesure de leur d\u00e9clin. Compte tenu des tensions dans d\u2019autres secteurs, notamment le march\u00e9 du travail, il nous semble peu probable que l\u2019inflation reste aussi t\u00e9nue en\u00a02016. Et plus la dynamique baissi\u00e8re de l\u2019or noir se poursuivra, plus ses pressions baissi\u00e8res sur l\u2019inflation s\u2019estomperont.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Si l\u2019inflation est rest\u00e9e faible dans les principaux pays occidentaux malgr\u00e9 la vigueur de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, c\u2019est notamment parce que les cours du p\u00e9trole ont recul\u00e9. Et, fait int\u00e9ressant, m\u00eame s\u2019ils se sont montr\u00e9s extr\u00eamement volatils sur les 18\u00a0derniers mois, ces prix influent de moins en moins sur l\u2019inflation finale. Au Royaume-Uni, c\u2019est par le biais du prix des carburants que les cours du p\u00e9trole ont l\u2019impact le plus direct sur l\u2019inflation\u00a0: toute baisse des co\u00fbts de production entra\u00eene une baisse des prix \u00e0 la pompe….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1329,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[60],"class_list":["post-1315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-inflation","tag-uk"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLa baisse des cours du p\u00e9trole n\u2019alimente pas la d\u00e9flation - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Si l\u2019inflation est rest\u00e9e faible dans les principaux pays occidentaux malgr\u00e9 la vigueur de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, c\u2019est notamment parce que les cours du p\u00e9trole ont\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2015\/12\/oil-price-fallpump-deflation\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Richard Woolnough\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2015\\\/12\\\/oil-price-fallpump-deflation\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2015\\\/12\\\/oil-price-fallpump-deflation\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Richard Woolnough\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/37ed0b3c35627328e05e569614ba3086\"},\"headline\":\"La baisse des cours du p\u00e9trole n\u2019alimente pas la d\u00e9flation\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-12-30T09:47:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-01-14T16:24:34+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2015\\\/12\\\/oil-price-fallpump-deflation\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":471,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2015\\\/12\\\/oil-price-fallpump-deflation\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/Impact-de-levolution-des-cours-du-petrole.png\",\"keywords\":[\"UK\"],\"articleSection\":[\"inflation\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2015\\\/12\\\/oil-price-fallpump-deflation\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2015\\\/12\\\/oil-price-fallpump-deflation\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2015\\\/12\\\/oil-price-fallpump-deflation\\\/\",\"name\":\"La baisse des cours du p\u00e9trole n\u2019alimente pas la d\u00e9flation - 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