{"id":1368,"date":"2016-01-19T14:08:42","date_gmt":"2016-01-19T14:08:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=1368"},"modified":"2018-01-19T12:21:47","modified_gmt":"2018-01-19T12:21:47","slug":"mg-yougov-inflsurvey-q4-2015","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2016\/01\/mg-yougov-inflsurvey-q4-2015\/","title":{"rendered":"Les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation au plus bas depuis trois ans \u2013 Enqu\u00eate M&#038;G YouGov sur les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation \u2013 4\u00e8me trimestre 2015"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dans un <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2021\/12\/30\/oil-price-fallpump-deflation\/\">blog<\/a><\/strong> r\u00e9cent, nous avons discut\u00e9 de l\u2019effet de l\u2019effondrement des cours des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, notamment le p\u00e9trole et l\u2019\u00e9nergie, sur l\u2019inflation dans le monde. Selon les chiffres de l\u2019inflation, les principaux pays occidentaux sont en situation de d\u00e9flation, ou s\u2019en sont rapproch\u00e9s tout au long de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, malgr\u00e9 la poursuite de la croissance \u00e9conomique et le redressement durable des march\u00e9s du travail.<\/p>\n<p>La question int\u00e9ressante est de savoir si ce type de d\u00e9flation par les co\u00fbts apparemment temporaire (\u00e0 savoir un recul des prix provoqu\u00e9 par le repli des cours des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, l\u2019assouplissement budg\u00e9taire ou les importations moins on\u00e9reuses) pourrait avoir un impact prolong\u00e9 sur l\u2019inflation r\u00e9elle et les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation, ce qui serait susceptible, \u00e0 son tour, d\u2019influencer la consommation et la d\u00e9termination des salaires. Les banques centrales devraient se montrer attentives \u00e0 tout signe pr\u00e9coce d\u2019instabilit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions de hausse des prix \u00e0 la consommation.<\/p>\n<p>Selon les r\u00e9sultats de l\u2019enqu\u00eate M&amp;G YouGov sur les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation men\u00e9e au 4<sup>\u00e8me<\/sup> trimestre 2015, les pr\u00e9visions de hausse des prix \u00e0 la consommation au Royaume-Uni ont de nouveau l\u00e9g\u00e8rement recul\u00e9 \u00e0 la fois sur une p\u00e9riode d\u2019un et cinq ans. L\u2019indice moyen des prix \u00e0 la consommation pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 venir est pass\u00e9 de 1,5% \u00e0 1,0%, soit le plus bas niveau enregistr\u00e9 depuis le lancement de notre enqu\u00eate. Sur un horizon de cinq ans, les pr\u00e9visions ont perdu -0,1% pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 2,5%. Par ailleurs, notre analyse montre que les pr\u00e9visions de revenu net en Grande-Bretagne se sont am\u00e9lior\u00e9es ces derniers mois\u00a0: 22% des consommateurs britanniques tablent sur une hausse du salaire net au cours des douze prochains mois.<\/p>\n<p>En Europe, les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation trimestrielles semblent s\u2019\u00eatre stabilis\u00e9es en Allemagne, en Autriche et en Italie, mais ont recul\u00e9 en Espagne et en Suisse, les deux seuls pays de l\u2019UE qui ont connu six trimestres cons\u00e9cutifs d\u2019inflation nulle ou n\u00e9gative.\u00a0N\u00e9anmoins, on constate qu\u2019\u00e0 long terme, tous les pays interrog\u00e9s pr\u00e9voient toujours une inflation \u00e9gale ou sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 2%, ce qui porte \u00e0 croire que les consommateurs europ\u00e9ens restent largement confiants dans la capacit\u00e9 des banques centrales \u00e0 s\u2019acquitter de leur mission de stabilit\u00e9 des prix.<\/p>\n<p>En Asie, les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation \u00e0 Singapour ont fait \u00e9tat d\u2019une l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse \u00e0 la fois \u00e0 court (3,1% \u00e0 3,0%) et moyen terme (4,5% \u00e0 4,0%), inversant la tendance \u00e0 la hausse enregistr\u00e9e au trimestre pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. En revanche, les anticipations \u00e0 Hong Kong restent inchang\u00e9es et font preuve d\u2019une remarquable stabilit\u00e9, les pr\u00e9visions \u00e0 5 ans se maintenant \u00e0 5% pour le sixi\u00e8me trimestre cons\u00e9cutif.<\/p>\n<p>Le rapport complet et les statistiques de notre enqu\u00eate du 4<sup>\u00e8me<\/sup> trimestre 2015 sont disponibles <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mandg.co.uk\/inflationsurvey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ici<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Note\u00a0: la vid\u00e9o suivante est seulement disponible en anglais.<\/p>\n<p id=\"buto_4CcPP\" class=\"video\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 345px;\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><script>(function(d, config) {var script = d.createElement(\"script\");\n                script.setAttribute(\"async\", true);\n                var data = JSON.stringify(config);\n                script.src = \"\/\/js.buto.tv\/video\/\" + data;\n                var s = d.getElementsByTagName(\"script\")[0];\n                s.parentNode.insertBefore(script, s)\n            })(document, {\"object_id\":\"4CcPP\", \"width\":\"425px\"})<\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans un blog r\u00e9cent, nous avons discut\u00e9 de l\u2019effet de l\u2019effondrement des cours des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, notamment le p\u00e9trole et l\u2019\u00e9nergie, sur l\u2019inflation dans le monde. Selon les chiffres de l\u2019inflation, les principaux pays occidentaux sont en situation de d\u00e9flation, ou s\u2019en sont rapproch\u00e9s tout au long de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, malgr\u00e9 la poursuite de la croissance \u00e9conomique et le redressement durable des march\u00e9s du travail. La question int\u00e9ressante est de savoir si ce type de d\u00e9flation par les co\u00fbts apparemment temporaire (\u00e0 savoir un recul des&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":70,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[137,143],"class_list":["post-1368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-inflation","tag-inflation","tag-macroeconomie-et-politique"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.8 (Yoast SEO v27.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation au plus bas depuis trois ans \u2013 Enqu\u00eate M&amp;G YouGov sur les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation \u2013 4\u00e8me trimestre 2015 - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dans un blog r\u00e9cent, nous avons discut\u00e9 de l\u2019effet de l\u2019effondrement des cours des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, notamment le p\u00e9trole et l\u2019\u00e9nergie, sur l\u2019inflation\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2016\/01\/mg-yougov-inflsurvey-q4-2015\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ana Gil\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/01\\\/mg-yougov-inflsurvey-q4-2015\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/01\\\/mg-yougov-inflsurvey-q4-2015\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ana Gil\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/6f8e1ec6e97ab48adc76532ad10b41e9\"},\"headline\":\"Les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation au plus bas depuis trois ans \u2013 Enqu\u00eate M&#038;G YouGov sur les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation \u2013 4\u00e8me trimestre 2015\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-01-19T14:08:42+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-01-19T12:21:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/01\\\/mg-yougov-inflsurvey-q4-2015\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":526,\"commentCount\":0,\"keywords\":[\"inflation\",\"macro\u00e9conomie et politique\"],\"articleSection\":[\"inflation\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/01\\\/mg-yougov-inflsurvey-q4-2015\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/01\\\/mg-yougov-inflsurvey-q4-2015\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/01\\\/mg-yougov-inflsurvey-q4-2015\\\/\",\"name\":\"Les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation au plus bas depuis trois ans \u2013 Enqu\u00eate M&G YouGov sur les pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation \u2013 4\u00e8me trimestre 2015 - 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