{"id":1441,"date":"2016-02-11T15:34:26","date_gmt":"2016-02-11T15:34:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=1441"},"modified":"2016-03-11T10:32:29","modified_gmt":"2016-03-11T10:32:29","slug":"analyse-quantitative-des-probabilites-de-recession-aux-etats-unis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2016\/02\/analyse-quantitative-des-probabilites-de-recession-aux-etats-unis\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyse quantitative des probabilit\u00e9s de r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Contributeur invit\u00e9 \u2013 Jean-Paul Jaegers CFA (Strat\u00e9giste Senior, Prudential Portfolio Management Group)<\/p>\n<p>Il est pratiquement impossible d\u2019appr\u00e9hender les moments o\u00f9 les r\u00e9cessions sont sur le point de se produire, comme en attestent les pr\u00e9visions de r\u00e9cession souvent fausses des institutions officielles et le fait que \u00a0des organismes comme le NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), sp\u00e9cialiste de la datation des cycles \u00e9conomiques am\u00e9ricains, ne le fassent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement qu\u2019avec \u00a0plusieurs trimestres de retard. .<\/p>\n<p>Bien que conscients qu\u2019il s\u2019agit d\u2019un exercice d\u00e9licat, nous pouvons tenter d\u2019\u00e9valuer des contractions potentielles de l\u2019activit\u00e9 en utilisant des ensembles de donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques r\u00e9currentes et pertinentes. Aucun indicateur n\u2019est parfait et les \u00e9conomies sont plut\u00f4t complexes, ainsi nous choisissons de nous int\u00e9resser \u00e0 une s\u00e9lection de s\u00e9ries temporelles qui \u00e9valuent les conditions \u00e9conomiques sous diff\u00e9rents angles. Certains indicateurs appr\u00e9hendent les perspectives \u00e9conomiques, d\u2019autres le march\u00e9 du travail et d\u2019autres encore la consommation.<\/p>\n<p>Nous appliquons alors la technique dite du <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Markov_model\" target=\"_blank\">mod\u00e8le de Markov<\/a><\/strong>, qui met en \u00e9quation deux \u00e9tats \u2013 un \u00e9tat \u00e9lev\u00e9 et un \u00e9tat bas (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire qu\u2019il estime deux distributions qui d\u00e9crivent le mieux la distribution globale). Cette technique utilise les observations les plus r\u00e9centes et assigne une probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00eatre actuellement dans l\u2019un de ces deux \u00e9tats. Cette approche sert souvent \u00e0 d\u00e9tecter des moments charni\u00e8res. Ici, notre hypoth\u00e8se est que l\u2019\u00e9tat bas est repr\u00e9sentatif d\u2019une r\u00e9cession ou d\u2019une contraction de l\u2019\u00e9conomie. Dans le pr\u00e9sent exercice, nous d\u00e9crivons la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019un \u00e9tat bas (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire d\u2019une r\u00e9cession). En outre, dans la mesure o\u00f9 l\u2019indicateur peut montrer une probabilit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9e de r\u00e9cession plus souvent que celle-ci ne se produit en r\u00e9alit\u00e9, nous \u00e9tablissons aussi une liste de certains indicateurs relatifs \u00e0 la pr\u00e9cision.<\/p>\n<p>Dans les graphiques suivants, les p\u00e9riodes gris\u00e9es illustrent des r\u00e9cessions, telles que d\u00e9finies par le NBER, et la ligne verte repr\u00e9sente la probabilit\u00e9, telle qu\u2019estim\u00e9e par le mod\u00e8le de Markov.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1444\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-7nU0BnIX\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1444 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR.png\" alt=\"Analyse quantitative des probabilit\u00e9s de r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR2.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1445\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-7nU0BnIX\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1445 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR2.png\" alt=\"Analyse quantitative des probabilit\u00e9s de r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR2.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR2-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR2-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR3.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1446\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-7nU0BnIX\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1446 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR3.png\" alt=\"Analyse quantitative des probabilit\u00e9s de r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR3.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR3-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR3-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>On peut observer que la production industrielle s\u2019est historiquement r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9e \u00eatre un indicateur pr\u00e9visionnel tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9cis des r\u00e9cessions. En effet, elle a pr\u00e9dit l\u2019ensemble des huit r\u00e9cessions depuis les ann\u00e9es 1960, tout en donnant peu, voire pas, de faux signaux. La production industrielle a \u00e9t\u00e9 faible r\u00e9cemment et, sur la base de cet indicateur, la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une r\u00e9cession est actuellement tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9e, de 94\u00a0% environ. L\u2019enqu\u00eate sur les perspectives \u00e9conomiques de la Fed de Philadelphie, qui interroge les fabricants de Pennsylvanie, du sud du New Jersey et du Delaware au sujet de leur vision de la conjoncture \u00e9conomique, indique \u00e9galement une probabilit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9e de r\u00e9cession. Cette enqu\u00eate peut aussi se pr\u00e9valoir d\u2019un historique de r\u00e9sultats plut\u00f4t satisfaisant, m\u00eame si elle a derni\u00e8rement donn\u00e9 quelques faux signaux. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, toutefois, le recours \u00e0 diff\u00e9rentes combinaisons des donn\u00e9es des indices ISM manufacturier et non-manufacturier livre une vision totalement diff\u00e9rente. Si les chiffres de l\u2019indice ISM manufacturier ont \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s faibles, ceux de l\u2019indice non-manufacturier ont (malgr\u00e9 un r\u00e9cent acc\u00e8s de faiblesse) \u00e9t\u00e9 tr\u00e8s soutenus, et une combinaison des deux indique actuellement une probabilit\u00e9 de r\u00e9cession consid\u00e9rablement plus basse. Ces derniers temps, le march\u00e9 du travail a \u00e9t\u00e9 l\u2019un des points positifs de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine et, comme l\u2019on pouvait s\u2019y attendre, lorsque l\u2019on utilise des indicateurs de ce march\u00e9, nous obtenons une probabilit\u00e9 tr\u00e8s faible \u2013 de l\u2019ordre de 1\u00a0% \u00e0 2\u00a0% seulement \u2013 d\u2019\u00eatre dans un environnement r\u00e9cessionniste. La confiance des consommateurs est actuellement \u00e9lev\u00e9e, soutenue par la fermet\u00e9 du march\u00e9 du travail et par la baisse des prix des carburants. De ce fait, les indicateurs bas\u00e9s sur la consommation sugg\u00e8rent aussi une faible probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019\u00eatre actuellement dans un \u00e9tat bas.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR4.png\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-1447\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-7nU0BnIX\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-1447 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR4.png\" alt=\"Analyse quantitative des probabilit\u00e9s de r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR4.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR4-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR4-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ainsi, l\u2019\u00e9valuation par une technique quantitative d\u2019un \u00e9ventail de s\u00e9ries temporelles ne fournit actuellement pas d\u2019indication g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e de probabilit\u00e9s \u00e9lev\u00e9es et inqui\u00e9tantes de r\u00e9cession. L\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ment perturbateur est toutefois le signal lanc\u00e9 par la production industrielle dont le taux d\u2019exactitude pr\u00e9visionnelle des r\u00e9cessions est, rappelons-le, excellent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Contributeur invit\u00e9 \u2013 Jean-Paul Jaegers CFA (Strat\u00e9giste Senior, Prudential Portfolio Management Group) Il est pratiquement impossible d\u2019appr\u00e9hender les moments o\u00f9 les r\u00e9cessions sont sur le point de se produire, comme en attestent les pr\u00e9visions de r\u00e9cession souvent fausses des institutions officielles et le fait que \u00a0des organismes comme le NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research), sp\u00e9cialiste de la datation des cycles \u00e9conomiques am\u00e9ricains, ne le fassent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement qu\u2019avec \u00a0plusieurs trimestres de retard. . Bien que conscients qu\u2019il s\u2019agit d\u2019un exercice d\u00e9licat, nous pouvons tenter d\u2019\u00e9valuer&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[72],"tags":[159],"class_list":["post-1441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-etats-unis","tag-recession"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.8 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Analyse quantitative des probabilit\u00e9s de r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Contributeur invit\u00e9 \u2013 Jean-Paul Jaegers CFA (Strat\u00e9giste Senior, Prudential Portfolio Management Group) Il est pratiquement impossible d\u2019appr\u00e9hender les\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2016\/02\/analyse-quantitative-des-probabilites-de-recession-aux-etats-unis\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jean-Paul Jaegers\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/02\\\/analyse-quantitative-des-probabilites-de-recession-aux-etats-unis\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/02\\\/analyse-quantitative-des-probabilites-de-recession-aux-etats-unis\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jean-Paul Jaegers\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2ff750950c2272088db2a15cce29ff9e\"},\"headline\":\"Analyse quantitative des probabilit\u00e9s de r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-02-11T15:34:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2016-03-11T10:32:29+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/02\\\/analyse-quantitative-des-probabilites-de-recession-aux-etats-unis\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":760,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/02\\\/analyse-quantitative-des-probabilites-de-recession-aux-etats-unis\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/16.02.08-JPJ-blog_FR.png\",\"keywords\":[\"r\u00e9cession\"],\"articleSection\":[\"\u00c9tats-Unis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/02\\\/analyse-quantitative-des-probabilites-de-recession-aux-etats-unis\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/02\\\/analyse-quantitative-des-probabilites-de-recession-aux-etats-unis\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2016\\\/02\\\/analyse-quantitative-des-probabilites-de-recession-aux-etats-unis\\\/\",\"name\":\"Analyse quantitative des probabilit\u00e9s de r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis - 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