{"id":1954,"date":"2016-11-09T17:32:44","date_gmt":"2016-11-09T17:32:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=1954"},"modified":"2016-11-23T16:34:34","modified_gmt":"2016-11-23T16:34:34","slug":"president-elect-trump-5-predictions-on-what-happens-next-in-the-global-economy-and-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2016\/11\/president-elect-trump-5-predictions-on-what-happens-next-in-the-global-economy-and-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9sident \u00e9lu Donald Trump. 5 pr\u00e9dictions pour l’\u00e9conomie mondiale et les march\u00e9s internationaux"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le scrutin est termin\u00e9 et le r\u00e9sultat est sans appel. Pour la deuxi\u00e8me fois en 2016, nous avons assist\u00e9 \u00e0 un rejet majeur du statu quo politique. Apr\u00e8s le r\u00e9sultat choc du r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum sur l’appartenance du Royaume-Uni \u00e0 l’Union europ\u00e9enne, la victoire de Donald Trump est un nouvel \u00e9l\u00e9ment qui apporte de l’eau au moulin de ceux qui pensent que la mondialisation et la mont\u00e9e des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s de revenus sont enray\u00e9es. Ceux qui sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme les perdants de la mondialisation ont renvers\u00e9 le syst\u00e8me politique en place et il faut s’attendre \u00e0 des changements.<\/p>\n

D’o\u00f9 ces cinq pr\u00e9dictions :<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Les \u00c9tats-Unis se dirigeront vers une politique budg\u00e9taire accommodante. Si le pr\u00e9sident \u00e9lu Donald Trump pourrait voir sa marge de man\u0153uvre quelque peu restreinte par la majorit\u00e9 r\u00e9publicaine \u00e0 la Chambre des Repr\u00e9sentants, on peut raisonnablement s’attendre \u00e0 une baisse des imp\u00f4ts et \u00e0 une hausse des d\u00e9penses d’infrastructure et de d\u00e9fense. Alors que l’\u00e9conomie flirte avec le plein-emploi, cela aura des effets inflationnistes \u00e0 moyen terme et la tendance \u00e0 la pentification des courbes des rendements perdurera. Les actifs \u00e0 b\u00eata plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, tels que les obligations \u00e0 haut rendement am\u00e9ricaines, devraient en profiter.<\/li>\n
  2. Les actifs profitant de l’inflation surperformeront ceux qui profitent de la d\u00e9flation. Les valeurs mobili\u00e8res sous-performeront les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res et l’immobilier dans un monde o\u00f9 les responsables politiques jouent la carte populiste.<\/li>\n
  3. L’Europe sera confront\u00e9e \u00e0 des difficult\u00e9s politiques significatives lors des douze prochains mois. S’il y a bien une le\u00e7on \u00e0 retenir de cette ann\u00e9e, c’est qu’il faut pr\u00e9voir l’impr\u00e9visible. Et si nous assistions \u00e0 des bouleversements politiques en France et en Allemagne\u00a0? Les Italiens voteront-ils contre la r\u00e9forme du S\u00e9nat lors du r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum programm\u00e9 le 4 d\u00e9cembre\u00a0? Cela pourrait soulever de s\u00e9rieuses questions sur l’avenir de la zone euro, une issue qui n’est absolument pas refl\u00e9t\u00e9e par les cours actuels des march\u00e9s p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques europ\u00e9ens.<\/li>\n
  4. Une pr\u00e9sidence Trump fera baisser les \u00e9changes commerciaux avec l’Europe. La fragile reprise observ\u00e9e en Europe pourrait s’en trouver fragilis\u00e9e. Il est trop t\u00f4t pour parler d’un d\u00e9sengagement de la BCE. Cette derni\u00e8re prolongera son programme d’assouplissement quantitatif en fin d’ann\u00e9e apr\u00e8s avoir proc\u00e9d\u00e9 \u00e0 quelques ajustements.<\/li>\n
  5. Trump ne construira peut-\u00eatre pas de mur. Quand bien m\u00eame il le ferait, ce mur ne ferait pas obstacle aux robots dans les entreprises. Leur nombre devrait doubler d’ici 2020 pour atteindre 2,5 millions d’unit\u00e9s. Outre l’exc\u00e8s d’\u00e9pargne en Asie (qui r\u00e9gresse mais demeure significatif), les robots sont le facteur qui p\u00e8se sur l’inflation et les rendements obligataires. Si ces derniers auront tendance \u00e0 remonter, ils ne retrouveront pas leur niveau d’avant-crise.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Le scrutin est termin\u00e9 et le r\u00e9sultat est sans appel. Pour la deuxi\u00e8me fois en 2016, nous avons assist\u00e9 \u00e0 un rejet majeur du statu quo politique. Apr\u00e8s le r\u00e9sultat choc du r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum sur l’appartenance du Royaume-Uni \u00e0 l’Union europ\u00e9enne, la victoire de Donald Trump est un nouvel \u00e9l\u00e9ment qui apporte de l’eau au moulin de ceux qui pensent que la mondialisation et la mont\u00e9e des in\u00e9galit\u00e9s de revenus sont enray\u00e9es. Ceux qui sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme les perdants de la mondialisation ont renvers\u00e9 le syst\u00e8me…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[72],"tags":[141,143],"class_list":["post-1954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-etats-unis","tag-etats-unis","tag-macroeconomie-et-politique"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPr\u00e9sident \u00e9lu Donald Trump. 5 pr\u00e9dictions pour l'\u00e9conomie mondiale et les march\u00e9s internationaux - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le scrutin est termin\u00e9 et le r\u00e9sultat est sans appel. Pour la deuxi\u00e8me fois en 2016, nous avons assist\u00e9 \u00e0 un rejet majeur du statu quo politique. 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