{"id":2312,"date":"2017-05-05T13:50:32","date_gmt":"2017-05-05T13:50:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=2312"},"modified":"2024-06-26T16:34:35","modified_gmt":"2024-06-26T16:34:35","slug":"le-shekel-israelien-echappe-au-radar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/05\/le-shekel-israelien-echappe-au-radar\/","title":{"rendered":"Le shekel isra\u00e9lien : \u00e9chappe au radar"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bien que le r\u00e9cent rapport du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain n\u2019ait d\u00e9sign\u00e9 aucun pays comme manipulateur de devise (plus de d\u00e9tails \u00e0 ce sujet dans le blog<\/strong><\/a> de Mario), la liste de surveillance se concentre sur les grandes \u00e9conomies qui remplissent les crit\u00e8res suivants :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Le pays dispose d\u2019un important exc\u00e9dent commercial bilat\u00e9ral avec les \u00c9tats-Unis, estim\u00e9 \u00e0 plus de 20 milliards d\u2019USD.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Le pays dispose d\u2019un exc\u00e9dent du compte courant d\u2019au moins 3 % du PIB, et est donc soumis \u00e0 une analyse approfondie du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Une intervention sur le march\u00e9 des changes persistante, unilat\u00e9rale de plus de 2 % du PIB du pays sur une p\u00e9riode de 12 mois peut \u00eatre un signe qu\u2019un pays manipule sa monnaie.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Parce qu\u2019Isra\u00ebl est une \u00e9conomie beaucoup plus petite (estim\u00e9e \u00e0 318 milliards de dollars fin 2016) et n\u2019est pas un grand partenaire commercial des \u00c9tats-Unis (l\u2019exc\u00e9dent commercial bilat\u00e9ral est largement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 20 milliards de dollars), elle n\u2019est pas incluse sur la liste de surveillance. De fa\u00e7on anecdotique cependant, si l\u2019on devait examiner les autres facteurs qui font partie des crit\u00e8res de surveillance, Isra\u00ebl rejoindrait probablement ce club.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    La Banque d\u2019Isra\u00ebl m\u00e8ne une politique mon\u00e9taire utilisant une combinaison d\u2019interventions sur les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et sur les devises. L\u2019inflation et les anticipations d\u2019inflation approchent maintenant du bas de la fourchette cible de 1 \u00e0 3\u00a0% (apr\u00e8s une p\u00e9riode d\u00e9flationniste de deux ans) et l\u2019\u00e9conomie enregistre une croissance solide. Les autorit\u00e9s mon\u00e9taires peuvent conserver une politique mon\u00e9taire accommodante, mais je pense qu\u2019il est peu probable que les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat soient abaiss\u00e9s du taux de base actuel de 0,1\u00a0% jusqu\u2019en territoire n\u00e9gatif, maintenant que l\u2019inflation va dans la bonne direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    La Banque d\u2019Isra\u00ebl estime le shekel est mod\u00e9r\u00e9ment sur\u00e9valu\u00e9 et est intervenue sur le march\u00e9 des changes pour lisser son appr\u00e9ciation, et au cours de ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, pour neutraliser les flux provenant des exportations de gaz naturel, afin d\u2019att\u00e9nuer le risque de \u00ab syndrome hollandais \u00bb. Le FMI, d\u2019autre part, estime que la monnaie correspond \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s aux facteurs fondamentaux. Il existe, toutefois, des r\u00e9sultats contradictoires selon la m\u00e9thodologie du mod\u00e8le du march\u00e9 des changes utilis\u00e9e, comme c\u2019est souvent le cas lorsque l\u2019on tente de mod\u00e9liser des monnaies. Certains mod\u00e8les sugg\u00e8rent une sous-\u00e9valuation de 15 %, tandis que d\u2019autres sugg\u00e8rent une sur\u00e9valuation modeste de 4 %. Pour de plus amples renseignements, veuillez consulter la page 50 ici<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Le shekel pourrait constituer une occasion int\u00e9ressante pour les investisseurs en devises (qui ne craignent pas un nouvelle appr\u00e9ciation de l\u2019USD) qui estiment que les tendances favorables de la balance des paiements restent intactes, que la Banque d\u2019Isra\u00ebl n\u2019augmentera pas le rythme de ses interventions sur le march\u00e9 des changes et qu\u2019il n\u2019existe pas de marge pour un assouplissement mon\u00e9taire suppl\u00e9mentaire.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Bien que le r\u00e9cent rapport du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain n\u2019ait d\u00e9sign\u00e9 aucun pays comme manipulateur de devise (plus de d\u00e9tails \u00e0 ce sujet dans le blog de Mario), la liste de surveillance se concentre sur les grandes \u00e9conomies qui remplissent les crit\u00e8res suivants : Parce qu\u2019Isra\u00ebl est une \u00e9conomie beaucoup plus petite (estim\u00e9e \u00e0 318 milliards de dollars fin 2016) et n\u2019est pas un grand partenaire commercial des \u00c9tats-Unis (l\u2019exc\u00e9dent commercial bilat\u00e9ral est largement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 20 milliards de dollars), elle n\u2019est pas incluse sur la liste…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":90,"featured_media":2322,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,72,7,43],"tags":[141,139],"class_list":["post-2312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-devises","category-etats-unis","category-pays","category-politique-monetaire","tag-etats-unis","tag-politique-monetaire"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe shekel isra\u00e9lien : \u00e9chappe au radar - 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