{"id":2404,"date":"2017-07-03T10:02:18","date_gmt":"2017-07-03T10:02:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=2404"},"modified":"2017-08-30T14:46:55","modified_gmt":"2017-08-30T14:46:55","slug":"argentinas-century-bond-much-ado-about-nothing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/07\/argentinas-century-bond-much-ado-about-nothing\/","title":{"rendered":"Obligation argentine \u00e0 100 ans : beaucoup de bruit pour rien"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019\u00e9mission r\u00e9cente d\u2019une obligation \u00e0 100 ans en Argentine a surpris en termes de timing et de maturit\u00e9. Les obligations \u00e0 100 ans \u00e9tant rares sur les march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents (voir le tableau relativement exhaustif ci-dessous), toute nouvelle \u00e9mission fait la une, en particulier lorsque l\u2019\u00e9metteur a fait d\u00e9faut de (tr\u00e8s) nombreuses fois, comme c\u2019est le cas de l\u2019Argentine.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Univers-des-obligations.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-JgZIr24f\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2422\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Univers-des-obligations.png\" alt=\"Univers des obligations \u00e9mergentes \u00e0 100 ans\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Univers-des-obligations.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Univers-des-obligations-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Univers-des-obligations-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Les obligations \u00e0 100 ans sont-elles vraiment plus risqu\u00e9es\u00a0?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol style=\"font-weight: 100\">\n<li><strong>Duration\u00a0<\/strong>: Nous l\u2019avons dit, la duration des obligations \u00e0 100 ans n\u2019est pas beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que celle des obligations \u00e0 30 ans qui, elles, sont relativement fr\u00e9quentes sur les march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents, y compris en Argentine.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/La-probabilite.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-JgZIr24f\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2423\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/La-probabilite.png\" alt=\"La probabilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9faut de l\u2019Argentine est d\u00e9j\u00e0 proche de 100\u00a0% pour les obligations \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance longue\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/La-probabilite.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/La-probabilite-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/La-probabilite-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ol style=\"font-weight: 100\" start=\"2\">\n<li><strong>Probabilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9faut<\/strong> <strong>implicite\u00a0: <\/strong>Une autre fa\u00e7on de mesurer le risque de cette obligation consiste \u00e0 calculer sa probabilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9faut implicite. \u00c0 l\u2019aide d\u2019un mod\u00e8le standard de l\u2019ISDA, nous avons attribu\u00e9 une valeur de recouvrement de 30\u00a0% (similaire au dernier d\u00e9faut argentin, en 2001) et les primes \u00e0 terme des obligations centenaires r\u00e9cemment \u00e9mises (T+515\u00a0pb) pour extrapoler la courbe des taux. Sur la base de ces hypoth\u00e8ses (en excluant tout \u00e9cart entre spread CDS-spread obligataire), la probabilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9faut est la suivante\u00a0:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Duration-des-obligations.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-JgZIr24f\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2424\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Duration-des-obligations.png\" alt=\"Duration des obligations \u00e0 30 ans et 100 ans\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Duration-des-obligations.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Duration-des-obligations-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Duration-des-obligations-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Compte tenu de la maturit\u00e9 inhabituelle de l\u2019obligation, le mod\u00e8le n\u2019est plus valable apr\u00e8s 50 ans. Toutefois, on observe que sur la base de ces hypoth\u00e8ses, la probabilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9faut implicite est d\u00e9j\u00e0 de 97\u00a0% pour une obligation arrivant \u00e0 maturit\u00e9 en 50 ans. De fait, une obligation \u00e0 100 ans ne devrait pas \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme plus risqu\u00e9e. Autrement dit, le niveau actuel des spreads argentins est en \u00e9quilibre pr\u00e9caire\u00a0: soit les fondamentaux continueront \u00e0 se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorer dans les prochaines d\u00e9cennies, soit l\u2019histoire se r\u00e9p\u00e9tera, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire que les fondamentaux ne s\u2019am\u00e9lioreront pas et l\u2019Argentine fera encore d\u00e9faut. Dans ce dernier sc\u00e9nario, le fait de d\u00e9tenir une obligation \u00e0 50 ans ou une obligation \u00e0 100 ans ne change quasiment rien.<\/p>\n<p><em>\u00ab\u00a0\u00c0 long terme, nous sommes tous morts\u00a0\u00bb John Maynard Keynes<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Pour conclure, la duration d\u2019une obligation argentine \u00e0 30 ans (11,8 ans) diff\u00e8re peu de celle d\u2019une obligation \u00e0 100 ans (12,7\u00a0ans), si bien que le risque de spread n\u2019est pas beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9. Le risque de d\u00e9faut d\u2019une obligation \u00e0 30 ans est n\u00e9anmoins proche de 100\u00a0% compte tenu de la valorisation actuelle du risque argentin \u00e0 long terme\u00a0: peut-il \u00eatre encore plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 pour une obligation \u00e0 100 ans\u00a0?<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-style: solid;border-width: 2px;width: 700px;padding: 20px;margin-left: 40px\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"font-weight: normal\"><span style=\"font-size: 17px\"><strong>Quelles sont les perspectives \u00e9conomiques de l\u2019Argentine ?<\/strong><br \/>\nConcernant les fondamentaux, le nouveau gouvernement argentin tente de r\u00e9gler des probl\u00e8mes majeurs h\u00e9rit\u00e9s de l\u2019ex\u00e9cutif pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Des progr\u00e8s rapides ont \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9alis\u00e9s en mati\u00e8re de lev\u00e9e des contr\u00f4les des capitaux et le march\u00e9 des devises a \u00e9t\u00e9 harmonis\u00e9 via l\u2019instauration d\u2019un nouveau r\u00e9gime de change libre. Les relations avec les investisseurs se sont nettement am\u00e9lior\u00e9es, comme l\u2019atteste et cette \u00e9mission obligataire. Au niveau domestique, toutefois, les am\u00e9liorations sont plus progressives. L\u2019inflation (mesur\u00e9e par l\u2019IPC de la ville de Buenos Aires) baisse \u00e0 mesure que la r\u00e9percussion de la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation du peso s\u2019estompe, mais elle reste sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 20 %. <\/span>La croissance reprend gr\u00e2ce aux investissements et elle sera essentielle pour contrer deux des risques \u00e0 moyen terme pour le pays :<\/p>\n<ol style=\"font-weight: 100\">\n<li>La situation budg\u00e9taire, qui reste mauvaise, avec un d\u00e9ficit de plus de 6 % du PIB. Cela signifie que le pays d\u00e9pend toujours beaucoup des march\u00e9s ext\u00e9rieurs pour financer ces d\u00e9ficits, le march\u00e9 domestique ne pouvant les financer en int\u00e9gralit\u00e9. Des niveaux de croissance plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s et durables seront n\u00e9cessaires pour am\u00e9liorer la tendance budg\u00e9taire, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la hausse des revenus, et permettre une marge de man\u0153uvre politique pour continuer de r\u00e9duire les d\u00e9penses incontournables, notamment les subventions aux exportations et aux transports.<\/li>\n<li><strong>La p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 des politiques \u00e9conomiques orthodoxes et favorables au march\u00e9 de Macri, qui constitue le principal risque.<\/strong> Le r\u00e9sultat des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat constituera un premier test en octobre, mais l\u2019\u00e9preuve de v\u00e9rit\u00e9 sera celle des \u00e9lections pr\u00e9sidentielles en 2019. En l\u2019absence d\u2019am\u00e9lioration \u00e9conomique, de reprise de la croissance, de baisse de l\u2019inflation et d\u2019am\u00e9lioration des salaires r\u00e9els, le retour des politiques populistes ne peut \u00eatre exclu si le parti p\u00e9roniste commence \u00e0 regagner le terrain perdu et \u00e0 remporter les \u00e9lections de 2019. Ce qui serait une tr\u00e8s mauvaise nouvelle pour les prix des actifs.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019\u00e9mission r\u00e9cente d\u2019une obligation \u00e0 100 ans en Argentine a surpris en termes de timing et de maturit\u00e9. Les obligations \u00e0 100 ans \u00e9tant rares sur les march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents (voir le tableau relativement exhaustif ci-dessous), toute nouvelle \u00e9mission fait la une, en particulier lorsque l\u2019\u00e9metteur a fait d\u00e9faut de (tr\u00e8s) nombreuses fois, comme c\u2019est le cas de l\u2019Argentine. Les obligations \u00e0 100 ans sont-elles vraiment plus risqu\u00e9es\u00a0? Duration\u00a0: Nous l\u2019avons dit, la duration des obligations \u00e0 100 ans n\u2019est pas beaucoup plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que celle&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":90,"featured_media":2422,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,47],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-categories-obligataires","category-marches-emergents"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Obligation argentine \u00e0 100 ans : beaucoup de bruit pour rien - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L\u2019\u00e9mission r\u00e9cente d\u2019une obligation \u00e0 100 ans en Argentine a surpris en termes de timing et de maturit\u00e9. 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