{"id":2452,"date":"2017-07-31T15:12:28","date_gmt":"2017-07-31T15:12:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=2452"},"modified":"2017-08-30T14:35:11","modified_gmt":"2017-08-30T14:35:11","slug":"whatever-it-takes-cinq-ans-apres","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/07\/whatever-it-takes-cinq-ans-apres\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00ab whatever it takes \u00bb : cinq ans apr\u00e8s"},"content":{"rendered":"

Voici cinq ans\u00a0 que Mario Draghi d\u00e9livrait ce commentaire d\u00e9sormais c\u00e9l\u00e8bre \u00ab\u00a0whatever it takes\u00a0\u00bb (\u00ab\u00a0quoi qu’il en co\u00fbte\u00a0\u00bb), g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme le point d\u2019inflexion de la situation au sein de la zone euro.<\/p>\n

Les cinq graphiques pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s ci-apr\u00e8s donnent un aper\u00e7u des succ\u00e8s et des \u00e9checs enregistr\u00e9s par la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne depuis lors, ainsi que des d\u00e9fis \u00e0 relever.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Co\u00fbts de financement au sein de l\u2019Europe p\u00e9riph\u00e9rique<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Il y a cinq ans, les co\u00fbts de financement des pays p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques europ\u00e9ens avaient atteint des niveaux non viables, comme en t\u00e9moigne les rendements de la dette \u00e0 10 ans espagnole (7,5\u00a0%), italienne (7\u00a0%), portugaise (11\u00a0%) et celui hors-norme de la dette grecque (27\u00a0%). Cette situation \u00e9tait en partie le reflet du risque de red\u00e9nomination en monnaie locale. En intervenant enfin en tant que pr\u00eateur en dernier ressort, la BCE a consid\u00e9rablement att\u00e9nu\u00e9 ce risque et permis \u00e0 des pays tels que l\u2019Espagne et l\u2019Italie d\u2019avoir \u00e0 nouveau acc\u00e8s au march\u00e9, abaissant ainsi leur co\u00fbt de financement implicite. Au fil du temps, les (ou certaines) r\u00e9formes structurelles, de nouvelles mesures d’assouplissement quantitatif et l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la croissance se sont traduites par une diminution des co\u00fbts de financement qui ont chut\u00e9 au niveau, et par fois en-dessous, des taux de croissance actuels, offrant d\u00e8s lors une v\u00e9ritable perspective de viabilit\u00e9 pour la dette des \u00e9conomies concern\u00e9es. Le retour de la Gr\u00e8ce sur les march\u00e9s compl\u00e8te cet \u00e9tonnant r\u00e9tablissement.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Croissance<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      La politique mon\u00e9taire ultra-accommodante a p\u00e9nalis\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9pargne, r\u00e9duit les co\u00fbts du service de la dette et encourag\u00e9 les investisseurs \u00e0 prendre des risques. Dans ce contexte, le moral des m\u00e9nages s\u2019est am\u00e9lior\u00e9, les prix des actifs se sont inscrits en hausse et la consommation s\u2019est redress\u00e9e. La zone euro a r\u00e9cemment cr\u00e9\u00e9 la surprise en enregistrant un taux d\u2019expansion sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son potentiel qui la place comme chef de file au niveau mondial. Le niveau record de l\u2019indice IFO allemand (publi\u00e9 hier) sugg\u00e8re un taux de croissance qui pourrait s\u2019\u00e9tablir aux environs de 3\u00a0% au second semestre 2017.<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Inflation<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        En d\u00e9pit de la stabilisation de la zone euro, l’abaissement des co\u00fbts d’emprunt et l\u2019am\u00e9lioration g\u00e9n\u00e9rale des perspectives \u00e9conomiques, la BCE ne parvient toujours pas \u00e0 atteindre son objectif d\u2019inflation. Cela s\u2019est r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 probl\u00e9matique car l\u2019unique objectif de la BCE est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment d\u2019amener l\u2019inflation \u00e0 un niveau proche, mais inf\u00e9rieur, \u00e0 2\u00a0%. Quand bien m\u00eame certains signes montrent que l\u2019inflation se rapproche du niveau conforme \u00e0 la d\u00e9finition de la stabilit\u00e9 des prix selon la Banque centrale, les progr\u00e8s ont tard\u00e9 \u00e0 se manifester. Un \u00e9ventuel resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire sera certainement un processus de longue haleine.<\/p>\n

        \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Bilan<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Apr\u00e8s avoir amen\u00e9 son taux de refinancement en territoire n\u00e9gatif en 2014, la BCE a malgr\u00e9 tout d\u00fb faire face au risque d\u2019une spirale d\u00e9flationniste auto-aliment\u00e9e. En fin de compte, elle a embo\u00eet\u00e9 le pas d\u2019autres banques centrales en annon\u00e7ant en janvier 2015 son intention d\u2019injecter 1\u00a0100 milliards d\u2019euros par le biais d\u2019achats d\u2019obligations jusqu\u2019en septembre 2016. Le hic ? Malgr\u00e9 l\u2019expansion significative de son bilan, la BCE a \u00e9t\u00e9 contrainte d\u2019amplifier son programme d’assouplissement quantitatif en allongeant sa dur\u00e9e et en l\u2019\u00e9tendant aux obligations d\u2019entreprises. Elle est \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent \u00e0 la t\u00eate d\u2019un montant colossal de 4 000 milliards d\u2019euros. Depuis, Mario Draghi n\u2019a pas m\u00e9nag\u00e9 ses efforts pour souligner qu\u2019un \u00e9ventuel resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire ne se ferait que de fa\u00e7on progressive. Il est pourtant manifeste que certains membres du Conseil des gouverneurs s\u2019inqui\u00e8tent des cons\u00e9quences n\u00e9gatives de l\u2019expansion continue du bilan, de ses implications sur le syst\u00e8me bancaire, ainsi que de la d\u00e9pendance de la zone euro \u00e0 la dette et, par cons\u00e9quent, de la capacit\u00e9 de la BCE \u00e0 s\u2019extirper de sa politique ultra-accommodante.<\/p>\n

          \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

            \n
          1. Politique (ch\u00f4mage)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            Si une vague populiste a sembl\u00e9 d\u00e9ferler sur les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, les r\u00e9sultats des \u00e9lections qui ont eu lieu aux Pays-Bas et en France donnent \u00e0 penser que la zone euro a peut-\u00eatre adopt\u00e9 une approche diff\u00e9rente. Cela \u00e9tant, les performances m\u00e9diocres de l\u2019\u00e9conomie italienne et la tenue d\u2019\u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives en 2018 r\u00e9unissent tous les ingr\u00e9dients d’un coup de th\u00e9\u00e2tre. Bien que les taux de ch\u00f4mage au sein de la zone euro aient quelque peu baiss\u00e9, ils n\u2019en demeurent pas moins \u00e9lev\u00e9s, en particulier parmi les jeunes.<\/p>\n

            \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

            Les sc\u00e9narios catastrophes qui pr\u00e9disaient la fin de la zone euro ne manquaient pas en 2012. Investisseurs et \u00e9conomistes s\u2019alignaient les uns \u00e0 la suite des autres pour expliquer que la monnaie unique ne tiendrait pas, estimant que soit les pays p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques seraient pouss\u00e9s vers la porte de sortie, soit ceux du c\u0153ur de l\u2019Europe abandonneraient le navire. En d\u00e9pit de toutes les sp\u00e9culations, aucun pays n\u2019a quitt\u00e9 la zone euro et les march\u00e9s semblent actuellement bien moins pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par cette question. Peut-\u00eatre s\u2019agit-il de l\u2019avanc\u00e9e la plus importante \u00e0 l\u2019aune de laquelle on peut juger de l\u2019efficacit\u00e9 de la politique men\u00e9e par la BCE durant les cinq derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            Voici cinq ans\u00a0 que Mario Draghi d\u00e9livrait ce commentaire d\u00e9sormais c\u00e9l\u00e8bre \u00ab\u00a0whatever it takes\u00a0\u00bb (\u00ab\u00a0quoi qu’il en co\u00fbte\u00a0\u00bb), g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme le point d\u2019inflexion de la situation au sein de la zone euro. Les cinq graphiques pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s ci-apr\u00e8s donnent un aper\u00e7u des succ\u00e8s et des \u00e9checs enregistr\u00e9s par la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne depuis lors, ainsi que des d\u00e9fis \u00e0 relever. Co\u00fbts de financement au sein de l\u2019Europe p\u00e9riph\u00e9rique Il y a cinq ans, les co\u00fbts de financement des pays p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques europ\u00e9ens avaient atteint des niveaux…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2467,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,67],"tags":[52],"class_list":["post-2452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-macroeconomie-et-politique","category-zone-euro-2","tag-banques-centrales"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00ab whatever it takes \u00bb : cinq ans apr\u00e8s - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Voici cinq ans\u00a0 que Mario Draghi d\u00e9livrait ce commentaire d\u00e9sormais c\u00e9l\u00e8bre \u00ab\u00a0whatever it takes\u00a0\u00bb (\u00ab\u00a0quoi qu'il en co\u00fbte\u00a0\u00bb), g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/07\/whatever-it-takes-cinq-ans-apres\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Stefan Isaacs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/07\\\/whatever-it-takes-cinq-ans-apres\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/07\\\/whatever-it-takes-cinq-ans-apres\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Stefan Isaacs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/e4366565557f551f390bdfae4f71bbab\"},\"headline\":\"\u00ab whatever it takes \u00bb : cinq ans apr\u00e8s\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-07-31T15:12:28+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-08-30T14:35:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/07\\\/whatever-it-takes-cinq-ans-apres\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":945,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/07\\\/whatever-it-takes-cinq-ans-apres\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/five1.png\",\"keywords\":[\"banques centrales\"],\"articleSection\":[\"macro\u00e9conomie et politique\",\"zone euro\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/07\\\/whatever-it-takes-cinq-ans-apres\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/07\\\/whatever-it-takes-cinq-ans-apres\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/07\\\/whatever-it-takes-cinq-ans-apres\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u00ab whatever it takes \u00bb : cinq ans apr\u00e8s - 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