{"id":2475,"date":"2017-08-03T13:16:20","date_gmt":"2017-08-03T13:16:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=2475"},"modified":"2017-08-30T14:34:21","modified_gmt":"2017-08-30T14:34:21","slug":"les-conditions-financieres-plaident-en-faveur-dune-fed-plus-offensive-que-ne-le-suggere-la-dynamique-inflationniste","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/les-conditions-financieres-plaident-en-faveur-dune-fed-plus-offensive-que-ne-le-suggere-la-dynamique-inflationniste\/","title":{"rendered":"Les conditions financi\u00e8res plaident en faveur d\u2019une Fed plus offensive que ne le sugg\u00e8re la dynamique inflationniste"},"content":{"rendered":"

Contributeur invit\u00e9 \u2013 Jean-Paul Jaegers (CFA, CQF, Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group)<\/em><\/p>\n

L\u2019acc\u00e8s de faiblesse r\u00e9cent de l\u2019inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis (recul de l\u2019inflation globale et \u00e9volution similaire de l\u2019inflation sous-jacente) a largement aliment\u00e9 les d\u00e9bats. Certes, un certain nombre de facteurs inhabituels l\u2019expliquent en partie, mais le fl\u00e9chissement g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9 et continu de l\u2019inflation constitue le fait majeur. Les derniers communiqu\u00e9s des membres du Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (et plus particuli\u00e8rement ceux de sa pr\u00e9sidente, Janet Yellen) ont soulign\u00e9 le caract\u00e8re incertain des perspectives d\u2019inflation, estimant qu’une partie seulement du fl\u00e9chissement constat\u00e9 depuis peu \u00e9tait temporaire. Il est int\u00e9ressant de noter que les d\u00e9clarations de la Fed font de plus en plus souvent r\u00e9f\u00e9rence aux \u00ab\u00a0conditions financi\u00e8res\u00a0\u00bb. Ce point est important.<\/p>\n

Le taux directeur fix\u00e9 par la Banque centrale influe indirectement sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie, mais ne l\u2019affecte pas directement. Il convient donc d\u2019analyser les conditions financi\u00e8res afin d\u2019\u00e9valuer l\u2019impact sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie r\u00e9elle de la politique mon\u00e9taire men\u00e9e par la Banque centrale. Le tableau ci-dessous montre que, bien que la fourchette de fluctuation des taux directeurs ait \u00e9t\u00e9 relev\u00e9e, les conditions financi\u00e8res se sont am\u00e9lior\u00e9es pendant la p\u00e9riode analys\u00e9e. Sur cette base, on pourrait \u00e9ventuellement affirmer que la politique de la Fed n\u2019a jusqu’\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent eu qu\u2019un impact direct limit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

La Fed a mentionn\u00e9 dans ses compte-rendus que \u00ab\u00a0quelques\u00a0\u00bb membres du FOMC se sont montr\u00e9s plus pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s des risques qui p\u00e8sent sur la stabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re que Mme Yellen. De plus, des conditions financi\u00e8res plus favorables pourraient, \u00e0 la marge, encourager la Fed \u00e0 faire barrage \u00e0 la formation de bulles sp\u00e9culatives sur les actifs.<\/p>\n

Les gouverneurs des banques centrales n\u2019ont pas fait myst\u00e8re de la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d\u2019accompagner l\u2019assouplissement des conditions financi\u00e8res par un resserrement des politiques mon\u00e9taires, afin d\u2019obtenir l\u2019effet appropri\u00e9 sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie. Cette nuance est importante car une am\u00e9lioration tendancielle des conditions financi\u00e8res (repli du dollar, appr\u00e9ciation des cours des actions, baisse des taux, etc.) pourrait justifier la poursuite du cycle de resserrement mon\u00e9taire, que ce soit par une action sur les taux directeurs ou un ajustement du bilan. En cons\u00e9quence, si la Fed devait mettre les conditions et la stabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8res au premier rang de ses priorit\u00e9s, elle pourrait adopter une attitude plus offensive que ne le laissent actuellement supposer les chiffres et la dynamique de l\u2019inflation. Les banques centrales souhaitent mettre en \u0153uvre un resserrement progressif, n\u00e9anmoins, la br\u00e8ve histoire des politiques mon\u00e9taires non conventionnelles semble indiquer qu\u2019un ajustement des prix des actifs survient g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement de fa\u00e7on abrupte.<\/p>\n

Quelles sont les cons\u00e9quences possibles sur l\u2019environnement boursier ? L\u2019\u00e9troitesse des spreads des obligations \u00e0 haut rendement pourrait inciter les investisseurs obligataires \u00e0 se tenir \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9cart de celles-ci, dans la perspective d\u2019un regain de volatilit\u00e9 des actifs risqu\u00e9s. Sauf acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l\u2019inflation, un recentrage des priorit\u00e9s sur le risque d\u2019instabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re devrait se traduire par un aplatissement de la courbe des taux (en raison d\u2019une prime de terme plus faible et de l\u2019absence de prime de risque li\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019inflation). Les investisseurs en actions qui ont b\u00e9n\u00e9fici\u00e9 jusqu’\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent d\u2019un environnement \u00ab\u00a0id\u00e9al\u00a0\u00bb combinant croissance stable, politique mon\u00e9taire accommodante et faible inflation, doivent se montrer attentifs \u00e0 une telle \u00e9ventualit\u00e9. Par le pass\u00e9, les efforts des banques centrales visant \u00e0 apaiser les inqui\u00e9tudes li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re potentielle n\u2019ont gu\u00e8re \u00e9t\u00e9 couronn\u00e9s de succ\u00e8s, tant il est particuli\u00e8rement ardu de contr\u00f4ler et d\u2019\u00e9valuer le m\u00e9canisme de transmission et la dynamique des politiques mon\u00e9taires. Pour l\u2019heure, il convient de surveiller l\u2019\u00e9volution des conditions financi\u00e8res. Le march\u00e9 t\u00e9moigne d\u2019une am\u00e9lioration notable depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, ce qui a suscit\u00e9 suffisamment d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat au sein de la Fed au point que les d\u00e9clarations et les communiqu\u00e9s \u00e0 ce sujet se sont multipli\u00e9s derni\u00e8rement.<\/p>\n

Cet article est fourni \u00e0 titre d’information et ne comporte ni ne constitue un conseil en investissement.\u00a0Ni PPMG, ni aucune de ses soci\u00e9t\u00e9s affili\u00e9es, ni aucun de ses directeurs ou employ\u00e9s ne peuvent \u00eatre tenus responsables de toute \u00e9ventuelle perte d\u00e9coulant directement ou indirectement de l’utilisation de ce contenu.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Contributeur invit\u00e9 \u2013 Jean-Paul Jaegers (CFA, CQF, Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group) L\u2019acc\u00e8s de faiblesse r\u00e9cent de l\u2019inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis (recul de l\u2019inflation globale et \u00e9volution similaire de l\u2019inflation sous-jacente) a largement aliment\u00e9 les d\u00e9bats. Certes, un certain nombre de facteurs inhabituels l\u2019expliquent en partie, mais le fl\u00e9chissement g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9 et continu de l\u2019inflation constitue le fait majeur. Les derniers communiqu\u00e9s des membres du Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (et plus particuli\u00e8rement ceux de sa pr\u00e9sidente, Janet Yellen) ont soulign\u00e9 le caract\u00e8re incertain des…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":2498,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[72,43],"tags":[137,122],"class_list":["post-2475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-etats-unis","category-politique-monetaire","tag-inflation","tag-reserve-federale"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLes conditions financi\u00e8res plaident en faveur d\u2019une Fed plus offensive que ne le sugg\u00e8re la dynamique inflationniste - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Contributeur invit\u00e9 \u2013 Jean-Paul Jaegers (CFA, CQF, Senior Investment Strategist, Prudential Portfolio Management Group) L\u2019acc\u00e8s de faiblesse r\u00e9cent de\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/les-conditions-financieres-plaident-en-faveur-dune-fed-plus-offensive-que-ne-le-suggere-la-dynamique-inflationniste\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jean-Paul Jaegers\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/les-conditions-financieres-plaident-en-faveur-dune-fed-plus-offensive-que-ne-le-suggere-la-dynamique-inflationniste\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/les-conditions-financieres-plaident-en-faveur-dune-fed-plus-offensive-que-ne-le-suggere-la-dynamique-inflationniste\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Jean-Paul Jaegers\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/#\/schema\/person\/2ff750950c2272088db2a15cce29ff9e\"},\"headline\":\"Les conditions financi\u00e8res plaident en faveur d\u2019une Fed plus offensive que ne le sugg\u00e8re la dynamique inflationniste\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-08-03T13:16:20+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-08-30T14:34:21+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/les-conditions-financieres-plaident-en-faveur-dune-fed-plus-offensive-que-ne-le-suggere-la-dynamique-inflationniste\/\"},\"wordCount\":797,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/les-conditions-financieres-plaident-en-faveur-dune-fed-plus-offensive-que-ne-le-suggere-la-dynamique-inflationniste\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/financial.png\",\"keywords\":[\"inflation\",\"r\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale\"],\"articleSection\":[\"\u00c9tats-Unis\",\"politique mon\u00e9taire\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/les-conditions-financieres-plaident-en-faveur-dune-fed-plus-offensive-que-ne-le-suggere-la-dynamique-inflationniste\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/les-conditions-financieres-plaident-en-faveur-dune-fed-plus-offensive-que-ne-le-suggere-la-dynamique-inflationniste\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/les-conditions-financieres-plaident-en-faveur-dune-fed-plus-offensive-que-ne-le-suggere-la-dynamique-inflationniste\/\",\"name\":\"Les conditions financi\u00e8res plaident en faveur d\u2019une Fed plus offensive que ne le sugg\u00e8re la dynamique inflationniste - 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