{"id":2488,"date":"2017-08-25T13:52:20","date_gmt":"2017-08-25T13:52:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=2488"},"modified":"2017-08-30T14:33:26","modified_gmt":"2017-08-30T14:33:26","slug":"are-debt-markets-and-rating-agencies-giving-ma-too-much-credit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/are-debt-markets-and-rating-agencies-giving-ma-too-much-credit\/","title":{"rendered":"Les march\u00e9s obligataires et les agences de notation accordent-ils trop de cr\u00e9dit aux op\u00e9rations de fusions – acquisitions (F&A) ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Contributeur invit\u00e9 \u00e0 ce blog – Simon Duff (analyste cr\u00e9dit chez M&G)<\/em><\/p>\n

La semaine derni\u00e8re, l’op\u00e9rateur international de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision Discovery Communications a annonc\u00e9 l\u2019acquisition de Scripps Networks pour un montant de 15 milliards de dollars. Scripps poss\u00e8de des cha\u00eenes de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9es dans l’alimentation, les conseils pour la maison, et les voyages. Ces \u00e9missions compl\u00e8tent bien le portefeuille de cha\u00eenes plus factuelles et moins \u00ab\u00a0sc\u00e9naris\u00e9es\u00a0\u00bb d\u00e9tenues par Discovery (Discovery, TLC, Animal Planet). Cette acquisition donne \u00e9galement \u00e0 Discovery une opportunit\u00e9 de se diversifier davantage au-del\u00e0 de sa base historique de t\u00e9l\u00e9spectateurs masculins. Elle permet \u00e9galement de soutenir les efforts de Scripps visant \u00e0 se d\u00e9velopper sur les march\u00e9s internationaux. Pour cela, Scripps, dont les clients sont principalement am\u00e9ricains, pourra s\u2019appuyer sur l’envergure mondiale de Discovery. Alors, qu\u2019est-ce qui cloche dans cette transaction\u00a0? Apparemment beaucoup de choses du point de vue des actionnaires de Discovery, puisque le titre a d\u00e9viss\u00e9 de 9\u00a0% \u00e0 l’annonce de l\u2019op\u00e9ration… Et cette chute intervient apr\u00e8s un recul du cours de plus de 40\u00a0% depuis janvier 2014.<\/p>\n

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La baisse du titre s’explique par des craintes quant au caract\u00e8re raisonnable de la transaction, craintes qui s\u2019ajoutent \u00e0 celles pesant sur le mod\u00e8le \u00e9conomique des op\u00e9rateurs de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision payante proposant des \u00ab\u00a0bouquets\u00a0\u00bb. Ces inqui\u00e9tudes proviennent de la pression structurelle croissante exerc\u00e9e par l’\u00e9volution des habitudes de consommation. En effet, les abonn\u00e9s privil\u00e9gient de plus en plus les bouquets moins fournis et moins chers (qui excluent les cha\u00eenes les moins en vue), l\u2019acc\u00e8s \u00e0 des programmes tr\u00e8s populaires\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0\u00e0 la demande\u00a0\u00bb, et le visionnage de formats courts sur plateformes mobiles telles que Snapchat ou Facebook. Pour illustrer ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne, le jour de l\u2019annonce de la transaction, Discovery a \u00e9galement d\u00e9voil\u00e9 que le rythme de baisse de ses abonnements s\u2019agissant de sa client\u00e8le principale bas\u00e9e aux Etats-Unis s\u2019\u00e9tait acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9. Ce taux de perte est ainsi pass\u00e9 de 2\u00a0% au T2 2016, \u00e0 3\u00a0% au T1 2017, pour atteindre 4\u00a0% au T2 2017. De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, Scripps a fait part d\u2019une poursuite de ses pertes d’abonn\u00e9s ainsi que d\u2019une baisse de ses pr\u00e9visions de chiffre d\u2019affaires et de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pour 2017, le tout dans un contexte de d\u00e9gradation de ses notations de cr\u00e9dit. Les inqui\u00e9tudes des porteurs ont \u00e9t\u00e9 exacerb\u00e9es par la prise de conscience qu’ils ne pouvaient raisonnablement pas bloquer l’op\u00e9ration en raison de la position dominante des actionnaires de co-contr\u00f4le que sont John Malone et la famille Advance-Newhouse.<\/p>\n

La r\u00e9action des march\u00e9s de cr\u00e9dit m’a particuli\u00e8rement \u00e9tonn\u00e9. La transaction est structur\u00e9e de fa\u00e7on bienveillante \u00e0 l’\u00e9gard des actionnaires, le capital de Scripps \u00e9tant rachet\u00e9 \u00e0 hauteur de 70\u00a0% en cash (rachat en cash financ\u00e9 par de la dette suppl\u00e9mentaire \u00e9mise par Discovery), et pour seulement 30\u00a0% en nouveaux titres Discovery. Combin\u00e9 \u00e0 une dette de Scripps d\u2019environ 3 milliards de dollars que Discovery devra \u00e9galement support\u00e9e, le ratio d\u2019endettement pro-forma de cette derni\u00e8re passera de 3,3x \u00e0 4,8x. Avec pr\u00e8s de 11\u00a0milliards de dollars de dette suppl\u00e9mentaire inscrite \u00e0 son bilan, Discovery verra sa dette plus que doubler apr\u00e8s la transaction. Bien s\u00fbr, Discovery fait valoir des synergies de co\u00fbts de 350 millions de dollars et la suspension de son programme de rachat d’actions, suspension qui vise \u00e0 soutenir l\u2019effort de r\u00e9duction de son ratio d\u2019endettement ver une nouvelle cible situ\u00e9e entre 3,0x et 3,5x. Ces arguments ne sont pas d\u2019un grand secours face \u00e0 un march\u00e9 soumis aux pressions structurelles \u00e9voqu\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, et \u00e0 un \u00e9metteur apparemment empress\u00e9 de mener des op\u00e9rations de F&A. Dans ce contexte, existe-t-il d\u2019autres motifs d\u2019inqui\u00e9tude\u00a0pour un cr\u00e9ancier\u00a0? Pas vraiment si l\u2019on en croit les agences de notation : S&P et Moody’s ont toutes les deux confirm\u00e9 le (fragile) profil de cr\u00e9dit de Discovery, l\u2019entreprise restant affubl\u00e9e de la plus faible note \u00ab\u00a0investment grade\u00a0\u00bb, \u00e0 savoir BBB-. Et il en va de m\u00eame pour les porteurs obligataires qui ont vu les spreads de risque \u00e0 peine bouger \u00e0 l\u2019annonce de la transaction.<\/p>\n

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Alors, laquelle des r\u00e9actions refl\u00e8te le mieux l\u2019annonce de l’acquisition de Scripps par Discovery\u00a0? Selon nous, la sage prudence du march\u00e9 actions contraste nettement avec l’insouciance de son homologue obligataire et des agences de notation. Pour les entreprises, la le\u00e7on est claire\u00a0: achetez des actifs et de la croissance en exploitant des \u00e9metteurs bon march\u00e9 dans un march\u00e9 caract\u00e9ris\u00e9 par la recherche de rendement et soutenu par la tol\u00e9rance des agences de notation \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des op\u00e9rations \u00e0 effet de levier. Pour les investisseurs en obligations d\u2019entreprises, le message est tout aussi limpide\u00a0: m\u00e9fiez-vous des op\u00e9rations de F&A qui font grimper l\u2019effet de levier sans que le spread des nouvelles \u00e9missions n\u2019apporte de r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration suppl\u00e9mentaire. Cela se traduit souvent par un profil de risque accru, masqu\u00e9 par un sentiment trompeur de confort li\u00e9 \u00e0 l’absence d’\u00e9cartement des spreads des obligations d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9tenues dans votre portefeuille.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Contributeur invit\u00e9 \u00e0 ce blog – Simon Duff (analyste cr\u00e9dit chez M&G) La semaine derni\u00e8re, l’op\u00e9rateur international de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision Discovery Communications a annonc\u00e9 l\u2019acquisition de Scripps Networks pour un montant de 15 milliards de dollars. Scripps poss\u00e8de des cha\u00eenes de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision sp\u00e9cialis\u00e9es dans l’alimentation, les conseils pour la maison, et les voyages. Ces \u00e9missions compl\u00e8tent bien le portefeuille de cha\u00eenes plus factuelles et moins \u00ab\u00a0sc\u00e9naris\u00e9es\u00a0\u00bb d\u00e9tenues par Discovery (Discovery, TLC, Animal Planet). Cette acquisition donne \u00e9galement \u00e0 Discovery une opportunit\u00e9 de se diversifier davantage au-del\u00e0…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":122,"featured_media":2521,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,72],"tags":[207],"class_list":["post-2488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-credit","category-etats-unis","tag-medias"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLes march\u00e9s obligataires et les agences de notation accordent-ils trop de cr\u00e9dit aux op\u00e9rations de fusions - acquisitions (F&A) ? - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Contributeur invit\u00e9 \u00e0 ce blog - Simon Duff (analyste cr\u00e9dit chez M&G) La semaine derni\u00e8re, l'op\u00e9rateur international de t\u00e9l\u00e9vision Discovery\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2017\/08\/are-debt-markets-and-rating-agencies-giving-ma-too-much-credit\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Simon Duff\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/08\\\/are-debt-markets-and-rating-agencies-giving-ma-too-much-credit\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/08\\\/are-debt-markets-and-rating-agencies-giving-ma-too-much-credit\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Simon Duff\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/eb74717bec7a2949930590c2cc693569\"},\"headline\":\"Les march\u00e9s obligataires et les agences de notation accordent-ils trop de cr\u00e9dit aux op\u00e9rations de fusions – acquisitions (F&A) ?\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-08-25T13:52:20+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2017-08-30T14:33:26+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/08\\\/are-debt-markets-and-rating-agencies-giving-ma-too-much-credit\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":911,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/08\\\/are-debt-markets-and-rating-agencies-giving-ma-too-much-credit\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/debt1.png\",\"keywords\":[\"m\u00e9dias\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Cr\u00e9dit\",\"\u00c9tats-Unis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/08\\\/are-debt-markets-and-rating-agencies-giving-ma-too-much-credit\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/08\\\/are-debt-markets-and-rating-agencies-giving-ma-too-much-credit\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2017\\\/08\\\/are-debt-markets-and-rating-agencies-giving-ma-too-much-credit\\\/\",\"name\":\"Les march\u00e9s obligataires et les agences de notation accordent-ils trop de cr\u00e9dit aux op\u00e9rations de fusions - acquisitions (F&A) ? 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