{"id":275,"date":"2014-05-23T07:13:21","date_gmt":"2014-05-23T07:13:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=275"},"modified":"2014-05-23T07:13:21","modified_gmt":"2014-05-23T07:13:21","slug":"la-deflation-se-propage-en-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2014\/05\/la-deflation-se-propage-en-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"La d\u00e9flation se propage en Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>La Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne (BCE) a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait preuve d\u2019un degr\u00e9 de tol\u00e9rance anormalement \u00e9lev\u00e9, pour ne pas dire pr\u00e9occupant, vis-\u00e0-vis des tr\u00e8s faibles taux d\u2019inflation enregistr\u00e9s. Elle n\u2019a pris aucune mesure suppl\u00e9mentaire, alors m\u00eame que l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation harmonis\u00e9 (IPCH) de la zone euro s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 0,5\u00a0% en glissement annuel et que l\u2019inflation continue de baisser dans de nombreux pays.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: 1.5em\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Desinflation.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-qur9AraU\" data-rl_title=\"Desinflation\" data-rl_caption=\"Desinflation\" title=\"Desinflation\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-330\" alt=\"(D\u00e9s)inflation\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Desinflation.png\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Pourquoi\u00a0? L\u2019une des raisons pourrait \u00eatre que, bien qu\u2019extr\u00eamement pr\u00e9occup\u00e9e par la d\u00e9flation, la BCE ne sait pas clairement \u00e0 l\u2019heure actuelle quel\u00a0outil employer pour soulager les pressions d\u00e9sinflationnistes, ou comment le mettre en \u0153uvre. Une autre raison pourrait \u00eatre qu\u2019elle n\u2019est pas particuli\u00e8rement pr\u00e9occup\u00e9e par la menace que constitue la d\u00e9sinflation et qu\u2019elle se contente d\u2019attendre que les chiffres repartent \u00e0 la hausse.<\/p>\n<p>En ce qui concerne cette derni\u00e8re possibilit\u00e9, Mario Draghi a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 lors de la Conf\u00e9rence de Davos en janvier dernier que les faibles taux d\u2019inflation s\u2019inscrivaient dans un mouvement d\u2019ajustement relatif des prix entre les \u00e9conomies europ\u00e9ennes, et qu\u2019ils traduisaient une am\u00e9lioration de la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9. On peut d\u00e9duire de cet argument que les taux d\u2019inflation les plus faibles sont uniquement observ\u00e9s dans les pays p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques et qu\u2019en cons\u00e9quence, le n\u00e9cessaire ajustement des prix entre la \u00ab\u00a0p\u00e9riph\u00e9rie\u00a0\u00bb et le \u00ab\u00a0centre\u00a0\u00bb commence \u00e0 avoir lieu. L\u2019autre conclusion est que la BCE n\u2019y voit aucun inconv\u00e9nient.<\/p>\n<p>Toutefois, le graphique ci-dessous montre l\u2019inflation en Allemagne, en France, aux Pays-Bas, en Espagne et en Italie (pays qui, ensemble, repr\u00e9sentent environ 80\u00a0% du PIB de la zone euro) en termes de taux de taxation constants sur une base globale. C\u2019est important dans la mesure o\u00f9 les r\u00e9formes fiscales peuvent avoir un impact significatif sur les chiffres de l\u2019inflation, alors qu\u2019il conviendrait peut-\u00eatre de ne pas les prendre en compte en raison de leur caract\u00e8re provisoire et artificiel. Par exemple, si un pays d\u00e9cide de relever son taux de TVA, l\u2019inflation augmentera pendant un certain temps avant que l\u2019effet de base finisse par dispara\u00eetre. Ce graphique r\u00e9v\u00e8le de mani\u00e8re assez pr\u00e9occupante que l\u2019Espagne, l\u2019Italie et les Pays-Bas font d\u00e9sormais l\u2019objet d\u2019une d\u00e9flation \u00e0 taux de taxation constants. Il indique \u00e9galement que la France est au bord du pr\u00e9cipice, avec un taux d\u2019inflation sur cette base de 0,2\u00a0% en glissement annuel.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Desinflation-a-taux.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-qur9AraU\" data-rl_title=\"Desinflation a taux\" data-rl_caption=\"Desinflation a taux\" title=\"Desinflation a taux\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-331\" alt=\"(D\u00e9s)inflation \u00e0 taux de taxation constants : encore plus pr\u00e9occupante \" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Desinflation-a-taux.png\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Les deux graphiques ci-dessus suscitent une autre pr\u00e9occupation li\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019argument de la BCE selon lequel les faibles taux d\u2019inflation p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques ne repr\u00e9sentent qu\u2019une \u00e9tape provisoire sur la voie d\u2019un ajustement interne important et souhaitable de la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9. Cet argument serait valable si la faible inflation se limitait aux pays p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques tandis que les pays centraux affichaient une inflation stable, conforme (voire sup\u00e9rieure) aux objectifs, se traduisant par un taux d\u2019inflation global proche de (mais inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0) 2\u00a0% au sein de la zone euro. Toutefois, ces deux graphiques montrent que la tendance \u00e0 la d\u00e9sinflation ne se limite pas aux seuls pays p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques, ce qui jette de s\u00e9rieux doutes sur la th\u00e8se de la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 soutenue par M. Draghi. La BCE serait peut-\u00eatre bien inspir\u00e9e d\u2019anticiper cette tendance inqui\u00e9tante et d\u2019agir sans tarder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne (BCE) a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait preuve d\u2019un degr\u00e9 de tol\u00e9rance anormalement \u00e9lev\u00e9, pour ne pas dire pr\u00e9occupant, vis-\u00e0-vis des tr\u00e8s faibles taux d\u2019inflation enregistr\u00e9s. Elle n\u2019a pris aucune mesure suppl\u00e9mentaire, alors m\u00eame que l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation harmonis\u00e9 (IPCH) de la zone euro s\u2019\u00e9l\u00e8ve \u00e0 0,5\u00a0% en glissement annuel et que l\u2019inflation continue de baisser dans de nombreux pays. Pourquoi\u00a0? L\u2019une des raisons pourrait \u00eatre que, bien qu\u2019extr\u00eamement pr\u00e9occup\u00e9e par la d\u00e9flation, la BCE ne sait pas clairement \u00e0 l\u2019heure&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[70,28],"tags":[40,71,50],"class_list":["post-275","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-banques-centrales-2","category-inflation","tag-bce","tag-ipch","tag-zone-euro"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.8 (Yoast SEO v27.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>La d\u00e9flation se propage en Europe - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne (BCE) a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait preuve d\u2019un degr\u00e9 de tol\u00e9rance anormalement \u00e9lev\u00e9, pour ne pas dire pr\u00e9occupant, vis-\u00e0-vis des tr\u00e8s\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2014\/05\/la-deflation-se-propage-en-europe\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ben Lord\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2014\/05\/la-deflation-se-propage-en-europe\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2014\/05\/la-deflation-se-propage-en-europe\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ben Lord\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/#\/schema\/person\/c4eecb682f956ed5d137f38e9a3137c1\"},\"headline\":\"La d\u00e9flation se propage en Europe\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-05-23T07:13:21+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2014\/05\/la-deflation-se-propage-en-europe\/\"},\"wordCount\":604,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2014\/05\/la-deflation-se-propage-en-europe\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/Desinflation.png\",\"keywords\":[\"BCE\",\"IPCH\",\"zone Euro\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banques centrales\",\"inflation\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2014\/05\/la-deflation-se-propage-en-europe\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2014\/05\/la-deflation-se-propage-en-europe\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2014\/05\/la-deflation-se-propage-en-europe\/\",\"name\":\"La d\u00e9flation se propage en Europe - 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