{"id":2944,"date":"2018-02-15T14:58:59","date_gmt":"2018-02-15T14:58:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=2944"},"modified":"2025-03-26T17:05:43","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T17:05:43","slug":"can-bond-markets-digest-huge-supply-u-s-treasuries-will-issued-year-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/02\/can-bond-markets-digest-huge-supply-u-s-treasuries-will-issued-year-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Les march\u00e9s obligataires seront-ils capables d\u2019absorber l\u2019\u00e9norme volume de bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain qui sera \u00e9mis en 2018 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le gouvernement des \u00c9tats-Unis se finance r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des \u00e9missions de dette \u00e0 court terme, qui reviennent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement moins cher que la dette \u00e0 long terme \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 la pentification naturelle de la courbe des taux am\u00e9ricains. Cette r\u00e9duction de co\u00fbts a pour effet d\u2019augmenter le risque de d\u00e9faut. Le risque de refinancement survient d\u00e8s lors que de la dette \u00e0 court terme est utilis\u00e9e pour financer des d\u00e9penses \u00e0 long terme. C\u2019est ce que craignent les services de gestion de la dette.<\/p>\n

Le gouvernement des \u00c9tats-Unis va devoir refinancer 28\u00a0% de son endettement total en 2018, soit l\u2019\u00e9quivalent de plus de 3\u00a0000\u00a0milliards de dollars en bons du Tr\u00e9sor. De plus, certaines estimations indiquent que le d\u00e9ficit du budget f\u00e9d\u00e9ral est en passe de d\u00e9passer les 1\u00a0000\u00a0milliards de dollars en 2019. Les mesures de relance budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement Trump devraient \u00eatre financ\u00e9es par l\u2019\u00e9mission de dette \u00e0 court terme, qui devrait contribuer \u00e0 une forte hausse de l\u2019offre de bons du Tr\u00e9sor.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

L\u2019opinion g\u00e9n\u00e9rale table sur un risque de crise du refinancement proche de z\u00e9ro aux \u00c9tats-Unis, pays qui b\u00e9n\u00e9ficie d\u2019un statut sp\u00e9cial puisqu\u2019il poss\u00e8de le march\u00e9 des emprunts d\u2019\u00c9tat le plus vaste et le plus liquide au monde, et que le dollar est la devise de r\u00e9serve \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle de la plan\u00e8te.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Mais si le risque d’une crise du refinancement est faible, plusieurs facteurs indiquent que les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor doivent augmenter par rapport \u00e0 leurs niveaux actuels afin d\u2019\u00eatre suffisamment attractifs aux yeux des investisseurs. Premi\u00e8rement, des membres haut-plac\u00e9s du gouvernement chinois auraient apparemment <\/a><\/strong>exhort\u00e9 les autorit\u00e9s \u00e0 r\u00e9duire, voire cesser, leurs achats de bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain. Les march\u00e9s \u00e9tant d\u00e9j\u00e0 aux prises avec une offre excessive, le retrait de l\u2019un des principaux acqu\u00e9reurs de ces titres aurait vraisemblablement pour effet de provoquer une hausse brutale des rendements.<\/p>\n

Deuxi\u00e8mement, l\u2019indice Bloomberg Dollar Spot a chut\u00e9 d\u2019environ 12\u00a0% depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2017. Si les investisseurs \u00e9trangers anticipent une poursuite de la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation du dollar, alors les non-r\u00e9sidents vont envisager de r\u00e9duire ou cesser d\u2019accumuler des actifs am\u00e9ricains et des bons du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 l\u2019avenir. C\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment ce que les autorit\u00e9s chinoises sont en train d\u2019analyser, et l\u2019on peut s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce que d\u2019autres gouvernements et de grandes institutions (comme des fonds souverains) leurs embo\u00eetent le pas. Si cela se produisait, le dollar serait mis davantage sous pression et les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor, toutes \u00e9ch\u00e9ances confondues, commenceraient \u00e0 augmenter.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Enfin, les \u00c9tats-Unis ont r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 \u00e9viter de refinancer leur dette depuis la crise financi\u00e8re en la mon\u00e9tisant. La Fed s\u2019est lanc\u00e9e dans un programme d\u2019assouplissement quantitatif (QE) en achetant de la dette publique sur le march\u00e9 primaire, permettant ainsi au gouvernement de r\u00e9duire ses co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt. Mais ce programme a pris fin, et la Fed rel\u00e8ve progressivement ses taux afin de ralentir la rapide surchauffe de l\u2019\u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n

Si les fondamentaux justifient <\/a><\/strong>une hausse des taux, le volume consid\u00e9rable de dette que le Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain va devoir \u00e9mettre cette ann\u00e9e et la suivante (parall\u00e8lement au resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire de la Fed) vont constituer un frein technique important aux performances des bons du Tr\u00e9sor en 2018.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le gouvernement des \u00c9tats-Unis se finance r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des \u00e9missions de dette \u00e0 court terme, qui reviennent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement moins cher que la dette \u00e0 long terme \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 la pentification naturelle de la courbe des taux am\u00e9ricains. Cette r\u00e9duction de co\u00fbts a pour effet d\u2019augmenter le risque de d\u00e9faut. Le risque de refinancement survient d\u00e8s lors que de la dette \u00e0 court terme est utilis\u00e9e pour financer des d\u00e9penses \u00e0 long terme. C\u2019est ce que craignent les services de gestion de la dette. Le…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":191,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[232,233],"tags":[219,122],"class_list":["post-2944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-tresors","category-us","tag-politique-fiscale","tag-reserve-federale"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLes march\u00e9s obligataires seront-ils capables d\u2019absorber l\u2019\u00e9norme volume de bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain qui sera \u00e9mis en 2018 ? - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le gouvernement des \u00c9tats-Unis se finance r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des \u00e9missions de dette \u00e0 court terme, qui reviennent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement moins cher que la dette\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/02\/can-bond-markets-digest-huge-supply-u-s-treasuries-will-issued-year-2\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Anthony Doyle\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/can-bond-markets-digest-huge-supply-u-s-treasuries-will-issued-year-2\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/can-bond-markets-digest-huge-supply-u-s-treasuries-will-issued-year-2\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Anthony Doyle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/18694630210f0f0d07a4b9199358e117\"},\"headline\":\"Les march\u00e9s obligataires seront-ils capables d\u2019absorber l\u2019\u00e9norme volume de bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain qui sera \u00e9mis en 2018 ?\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-02-15T14:58:59+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-26T17:05:43+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/can-bond-markets-digest-huge-supply-u-s-treasuries-will-issued-year-2\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":620,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/can-bond-markets-digest-huge-supply-u-s-treasuries-will-issued-year-2\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/fr-1-treasuries.png\",\"keywords\":[\"politique fiscale\",\"r\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Tr\u00e9sors\",\"US\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/can-bond-markets-digest-huge-supply-u-s-treasuries-will-issued-year-2\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/can-bond-markets-digest-huge-supply-u-s-treasuries-will-issued-year-2\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/can-bond-markets-digest-huge-supply-u-s-treasuries-will-issued-year-2\\\/\",\"name\":\"Les march\u00e9s obligataires seront-ils capables d\u2019absorber l\u2019\u00e9norme volume de bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain qui sera \u00e9mis en 2018 ? 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