{"id":2946,"date":"2018-02-21T09:51:26","date_gmt":"2018-02-21T09:51:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=2946"},"modified":"2023-04-05T14:47:41","modified_gmt":"2023-04-05T14:47:41","slug":"carillion-case-study-all-was-not-what-it-seemed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/02\/carillion-case-study-all-was-not-what-it-seemed\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9tude de cas \u2013 Carillion : Les apparences \u00e9taient trompeuses"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dans son Rapport annuel 2016 intitul\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0Making tomorrow a better place\u00a0\u00a0\u00bb, Carillion pr\u00e9tendait avoir \u00ab\u00a0une bonne plate-forme sur laquelle nous pouvons nous appuyer pour d\u00e9velopper notre activit\u00e9 en 2017\u00a0\u00bb. Moins de dix moins apr\u00e8s la publication de ce rapport, le g\u00e9ant du BTP britannique Carillion a \u00e9t\u00e9 mis en liquidation, sans m\u00eame passer par la case redressement judiciaire qui lui aurait laiss\u00e9 une chance de poursuivre ses activit\u00e9s. Les actifs de l\u2019entreprise seront r\u00e9alis\u00e9s et distribu\u00e9s \u00e0 ses cr\u00e9anciers. Une fois ces derniers servis, il ne restera plus grand-chose, voire rien du tout. Cette faillite retentissante \u00e9tait-elle pr\u00e9visible\u00a0?<\/p>\n

Carillion se d\u00e9finissait comme une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de services de soutien int\u00e9gr\u00e9e de premier plan avec un portefeuille bien fourni de contrats de construction et de partenariats public-priv\u00e9. Lors de la publication de ses r\u00e9sultats pr\u00e9liminaires pour l\u2019exercice 2016, Carillion a fait \u00e9tat d’un taux de conversion en cash de 117\u00a0% et d\u2019un ratio dette nette\/EBITDA (b\u00e9n\u00e9fice avant int\u00e9r\u00eats, imp\u00f4ts et amortissements, un indicateur des flux de tr\u00e9sorerie) de 0,8. Ces ratios auraient pu sugg\u00e9rer un profil de cr\u00e9dit \u00ab\u00a0investment grade\u00a0\u00bb, avec une probabilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9faut relativement faible mais un examen approfondi r\u00e9v\u00e8le une toute autre histoire.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Conversion en cash<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Carillion d\u00e9finissait la conversion en cash comme les flux entrants de tr\u00e9sorerie tir\u00e9s de l\u2019exploitation rapport\u00e9s au r\u00e9sultat d\u2019exploitation sous-jacent. Le premier tient compte des variations du fonds de roulement, qui sert \u00e0 financer les op\u00e9rations quotidiennes. Si les variations nettes du fonds de roulement ne r\u00e9v\u00e8lent rien d\u2019inhabituel, la d\u00e9gradation des comptes clients en cours d\u2019ann\u00e9e (variation de 339\u00a0millions de GBP) \u00e9tait manifestement financ\u00e9e en grande partie par l\u2019augmentation des comptes fournisseurs (variation de 342\u00a0millions de GBP), avec \u00e0 la cl\u00e9 une forte hausse du besoin en fonds de roulement.<\/p>\n

    La situation a \u00e9t\u00e9 aggrav\u00e9e par la mise en place par Carillion d\u2019un m\u00e9canisme d\u2019affacturage invers\u00e9 (une facilit\u00e9 de paiement anticip\u00e9 \u00e0 destination des fournisseurs d\u2019une grande entreprise) en 2013, qui lui a permis d\u2019allonger les d\u00e9lais de paiement des fournisseurs \u00e0 120\u00a0jours (soit pr\u00e8s du double). Dans le cadre de ce m\u00e9canisme, les banques de Carillion r\u00e9glaient les fournisseurs puis r\u00e9cup\u00e9raient l\u2019argent aupr\u00e8s de Carillion, ce qui en faisait concr\u00e8tement des cr\u00e9anciers \u00e0 court terme de l\u2019entreprise.<\/p>\n

    Si le recours \u00e0 l\u2019affacturage invers\u00e9 par les entreprises contractantes n\u2019est pas inhabituel, il am\u00e9liorait en apparence les flux de tr\u00e9sorerie d\u00e9clar\u00e9s sans accro\u00eetre la dette quand, dans la pratique, il produisait l\u2019effet contraire. Par ailleurs, le taux de conversion en cash d\u00e9clar\u00e9 par Carillion \u00e9tait un pi\u00e8tre indicateur du niveau de la tr\u00e9sorerie de l\u2019entreprise. Les flux de tr\u00e9sorerie disponible absolus auraient \u00e9t\u00e9 un indicateur plus pertinent pour analyser la situation car ils tiennent compte de la tr\u00e9sorerie consacr\u00e9e aux d\u00e9penses d’investissement, au remboursement des int\u00e9r\u00eats, au paiement des imp\u00f4ts et des cotisations retraite, aux dividendes et aux acquisitions. Cette m\u00e9thode aurait r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 que Carillion avait consomm\u00e9\u00a0 de la tr\u00e9sorerie lors de deux des quatre exercices de la p\u00e9riode 2013-2016.<\/p>\n

    Le d\u00e9bat reste ouvert quant au fait de savoir si l\u2019affacturage invers\u00e9 \u00e9tait un sympt\u00f4me ou la cause du malaise chez Carillion. Toutefois, comme ce m\u00e9canisme serait invalid\u00e9 si Carillion ou l’un de ses fournisseurs devenait insolvable, il est certainement indissociable de l\u2019effondrement final de l\u2019entreprise. Paradoxalement, les deux seules r\u00e9f\u00e9rences \u00e0 l\u2019affacturage invers\u00e9 dans le rapport annuel ne mentionnaient que l\u2019impact positif de cette facilit\u00e9 pour les fournisseurs.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Dette nette<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      En apparence, le ratio de levier financier net semblait faible dans la rapport 2016, largement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la limite de 3,5 pr\u00e9vue dans les clauses de sauvegarde introduites par les banques. Une image plus fid\u00e8le \u00e0 la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 du passif de Carillion aurait n\u00e9anmoins tenu compte des autres cr\u00e9anciers engendr\u00e9s par le recours \u00e0 l\u2019affacturage invers\u00e9, ainsi que du d\u00e9ficit du r\u00e9gime de retraites, qui a plus que doubl\u00e9 dans le courant de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2016. Vue sous cet angle, la d\u00e9gradation du bilan saute davantage aux yeux.<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

      L\u2019onde de choc de la faillite de l\u2019entreprise n\u2019est pas encore pass\u00e9e mais les parties prenantes, dont le gouvernement<\/a> cherchent \u00e0 savoir ce qui a mal tourn\u00e9 et comment cette situation aurait pu \u00eatre \u00e9vit\u00e9e. Outre les probl\u00e8mes de tr\u00e9sorerie et de dette susmentionn\u00e9s, plusieurs autres facteurs se sont imbriqu\u00e9s pour aboutir \u00e0 l\u2019effondrement\u00a0: les lacunes dans la comptabilit\u00e9 des contrats, la faible rentabilit\u00e9, les confortables versements de dividendes aux actionnaires et les \u00e9l\u00e9ments intangibles inscrits au bilan, qui \u00e9taient gigantesques par rapport aux capitaux propres, d\u2019o\u00f9 leur vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 \u00e0 une d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation. La le\u00e7on pour les investisseurs est que les chiffres rapport\u00e9s donnent rarement une vision globale de la situation. Les investisseurs doivent examiner en d\u00e9tail les informations financi\u00e8res pour mieux comprendre la v\u00e9ritable situation \u00e9conomique d\u2019une entreprise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Dans son Rapport annuel 2016 intitul\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0Making tomorrow a better place\u00a0\u00a0\u00bb, Carillion pr\u00e9tendait avoir \u00ab\u00a0une bonne plate-forme sur laquelle nous pouvons nous appuyer pour d\u00e9velopper notre activit\u00e9 en 2017\u00a0\u00bb. Moins de dix moins apr\u00e8s la publication de ce rapport, le g\u00e9ant du BTP britannique Carillion a \u00e9t\u00e9 mis en liquidation, sans m\u00eame passer par la case redressement judiciaire qui lui aurait laiss\u00e9 une chance de poursuivre ses activit\u00e9s. Les actifs de l\u2019entreprise seront r\u00e9alis\u00e9s et distribu\u00e9s \u00e0 ses cr\u00e9anciers. Une fois ces derniers servis, il…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,234],"tags":[60],"class_list":["post-2946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-credit","category-des-pays","tag-uk"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c9tude de cas \u2013 Carillion : Les apparences \u00e9taient trompeuses - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dans son Rapport annuel 2016 intitul\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0Making tomorrow a better place\u00a0\u00a0\u00bb, Carillion pr\u00e9tendait avoir \u00ab\u00a0une bonne plate-forme sur laquelle nous pouvons\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/02\/carillion-case-study-all-was-not-what-it-seemed\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Guest contributor \u2013 Vladimir Jovkovic (Credit Analyst, M&G Credit Analysis team)\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/carillion-case-study-all-was-not-what-it-seemed\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/carillion-case-study-all-was-not-what-it-seemed\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Guest contributor \u2013 Vladimir Jovkovic (Credit Analyst, M&G Credit Analysis team)\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/387ed5c2e2c905c487e04ebac37422d1\"},\"headline\":\"\u00c9tude de cas \u2013 Carillion : Les apparences \u00e9taient trompeuses\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-02-21T09:51:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-04-05T14:47:41+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/carillion-case-study-all-was-not-what-it-seemed\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":891,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/carillion-case-study-all-was-not-what-it-seemed\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/FR-1-CARILLION.png\",\"keywords\":[\"UK\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Cr\u00e9dit\",\"Des pays\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/carillion-case-study-all-was-not-what-it-seemed\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/carillion-case-study-all-was-not-what-it-seemed\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2018\\\/02\\\/carillion-case-study-all-was-not-what-it-seemed\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u00c9tude de cas \u2013 Carillion : Les apparences \u00e9taient trompeuses - 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