{"id":3232,"date":"2018-08-15T15:38:38","date_gmt":"2018-08-15T15:38:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=3232"},"modified":"2023-07-12T09:53:33","modified_gmt":"2023-07-12T09:53:33","slug":"can-russia-stomach-new-us-sanctions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/08\/can-russia-stomach-new-us-sanctions\/","title":{"rendered":"La Russie pourra-t-elle r\u00e9sister \u00e0 de nouvelles sanctions am\u00e9ricaines ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Apr\u00e8s la pause estivale, le Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain va \u00e9tudier divers projets de loi pr\u00e9voyant de nouvelles sanctions \u00e0 l\u2019encontre de la Russie. Ces sanctions incluent des restrictions<\/a><\/strong> suppl\u00e9mentaires sur les importations et les exportations russes vers les \u00c9tats-Unis et sur l\u2019activit\u00e9 des banques russes sur le territoire am\u00e9ricain. Il est \u00e9galement envisag\u00e9 d\u2019interdire aux citoyens am\u00e9ricains d\u2019acheter de nouvelles \u00e9missions de dette souveraine russe ayant une maturit\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 14 jours. Les transactions sur des titres de dette plus anciens ne seraient pas concern\u00e9es. Depuis que les \u00c9tats-Unis ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 prendre des sanctions contre la Russie en 2014, les institutions financi\u00e8res et les entreprises ont pu s\u2019accommoder de certaines restrictions. En seront-elles \u00e0 nouveau capables cette fois-ci ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si les \u00c9tats-Unis interdisent vraiment aux investisseurs am\u00e9ricains de financer le gouvernement russe, de nombreux investisseurs et banques en Europe devraient en faire de m\u00eame, en particulier s\u2019ils ont des activit\u00e9s sur le sol am\u00e9ricain. Cela r\u00e9duirait consid\u00e9rablement les volumes n\u00e9goci\u00e9s quotidiennement sur la nouvelle dette.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quel serait alors l\u2019impact sur la capacit\u00e9 de financement de la Russie ? Comme le montrent les deux graphiques ci-dessous, l\u2019amortissement de la dette souveraine russe concerne essentiellement les obligations libell\u00e9es en rouble (OFZ). Selon la Banque centrale russe, environ 28 % de ces obligations OFZ sont d\u00e9tenues par des non-r\u00e9sidents (cf. Graphique II).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graphique 1 : Prochaines \u00e9ch\u00e9ances de la dette souveraine russe (en M USD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Graphique 2 : % des investisseurs non-r\u00e9sidents d\u00e9tenant des obligations russes OFZ<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Cependant, les chiffres relatifs \u00e0 la d\u00e9tention des non-r\u00e9sidents sont peut-\u00eatre sous-estim\u00e9s s\u2019ils ont investi via des instruments synth\u00e9tiques, comme des credit-linked notes<\/em>, des swaps de rendement total, etc. L\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, une analyse<\/strong><\/a> de l\u2019\u00e9volution et de l\u2019ouverture du march\u00e9 domestique russe r\u00e9alis\u00e9e par le FMI a mis en exergue le r\u00f4le cl\u00e9 jou\u00e9 par les investisseurs \u00e9trangers, notamment lors des premi\u00e8res ann\u00e9es du processus, comme en 2012. Si ce risque de sous-estimation est bien r\u00e9el, les investissements dans la dette russe en devise locale via des instruments indirects sont probablement plus faibles que par le pass\u00e9, lorsque les investisseurs \u00e9trangers ne pouvaient pas acc\u00e9der facilement au march\u00e9 local et devaient utiliser des instruments alternatifs pour s\u2019exposer \u00e0 la dette locale russe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si l\u2019on fait l’hypoth\u00e8se que les investisseurs am\u00e9ricains et europ\u00e9ens (instruments indirects compris) d\u00e9tiennent 33 % du march\u00e9 des obligations OFZ et 100 % de la dette en devises \u00e9trang\u00e8res, la Russie pourrait faire face \u00e0 un d\u00e9ficit de financement d\u2019environ 5 \u00e0 7 milliards de dollars par an entre 2019 et 2023. Cependant, si l\u2019on se fie \u00e0 d\u2019anciennes enqu\u00eates aupr\u00e8s des investisseurs, les non-r\u00e9sidents sont tr\u00e8s probablement investis dans des obligations qui arriveront \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance d\u2019ici 5 \u00e0 15 ans, tandis que les investisseurs locaux, dont les banques, privil\u00e9gient plut\u00f4t les titres \u00e0 plus court terme. Cela donnerait un sursis \u00e0 la Russie pour s\u2019adapter aux nouvelles sanctions, si celles-ci sont approuv\u00e9es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En outre, le rebond r\u00e9cent des prix du p\u00e9trole et le regain de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique ont permis \u00e0 la Russie de renouer avec un exc\u00e9dent budg\u00e9taire, en plus de l\u2019exc\u00e9dent de sa balance courante. Comme le montre le Graphique 3, les r\u00e9serves de change de la Russie, constitu\u00e9es gr\u00e2ce aux achats de dollars par la banque centrale, sont remont\u00e9es \u00e0 450 milliards de dollars, soit un peu moins que le niveau enregistr\u00e9 avant les sanctions de 2014. Si les prix du p\u00e9trole se stabilisent \u00e0 leur niveau actuel et si les nouvelles repr\u00e9sailles am\u00e9ricaines ne font pas d\u00e9railler la croissance \u00e9conomique via un choc sur la confiance et la liquidit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 domestique, la Russie, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la solidit\u00e9 de sa situation financi\u00e8re, devrait \u00eatre capable d\u2019absorber l\u2019impact n\u00e9gatif de nouvelles sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graphique 3 : Le prix \u00e9lev\u00e9\/les r\u00e9serves massives de p\u00e9trole pourraient permettre \u00e0 la Russie de r\u00e9sister \u00e0 de nouvelles sanctions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Apr\u00e8s la pause estivale, le Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain va \u00e9tudier divers projets de loi pr\u00e9voyant de nouvelles sanctions \u00e0 l\u2019encontre de la Russie. Ces sanctions incluent des restrictions suppl\u00e9mentaires sur les importations et les exportations russes vers les \u00c9tats-Unis et sur l\u2019activit\u00e9 des banques russes sur le territoire am\u00e9ricain. Il est \u00e9galement envisag\u00e9 d\u2019interdire aux citoyens am\u00e9ricains d\u2019acheter de nouvelles \u00e9missions de dette souveraine russe ayant une maturit\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 14 jours. Les transactions sur des titres de dette plus anciens ne seraient pas concern\u00e9es. Depuis…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":90,"featured_media":3255,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[234,47],"tags":[270,273,272],"class_list":["post-3232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-des-pays","category-marches-emergents","tag-russie","tag-sanction","tag-u-s-a"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLa Russie pourra-t-elle r\u00e9sister \u00e0 de nouvelles sanctions am\u00e9ricaines ? - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Apr\u00e8s la pause estivale, le Congr\u00e8s am\u00e9ricain va \u00e9tudier divers projets de loi pr\u00e9voyant de nouvelles sanctions \u00e0 l\u2019encontre de la Russie. 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