{"id":3403,"date":"2018-10-02T13:23:52","date_gmt":"2018-10-02T13:23:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=3403"},"modified":"2021-12-03T16:16:47","modified_gmt":"2021-12-03T16:16:47","slug":"watch-step-cliff-edge-risk-european-high-yield","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/10\/watch-step-cliff-edge-risk-european-high-yield\/","title":{"rendered":"Attention, le High Yield europ\u00e9en marche sur la ligne de cr\u00eate"},"content":{"rendered":"

L\u2019ann\u00e9e 2018 ne restera probablement pas dans les annales en mati\u00e8re de performance totale sur le march\u00e9 europ\u00e9en des obligations \u00e0 haut rendement. En effet, l\u2019\u00e9cartement des spreads s\u2019est traduit par de l\u00e9g\u00e8res moins-values, qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 peine compens\u00e9es par un revenu relativement faible de 3,2\u00a0%, donnant lieu \u00e0 une performance totale an\u00e9mique de 0,22\u00a0% depuis le 1er<\/sup> janvier. Un profil inint\u00e9ressant et ennuyeux\u00a0? Oui, mais seulement en apparence. Les tendances sous-jacentes sont bien plus r\u00e9v\u00e9latrices et lourdes de sens pour les investisseurs.<\/p>\n

Chaque ann\u00e9e, certaines obligations \u00e0 haut rendement se distinguent par des baisses de prix importantes (une tendance habituelle que les g\u00e9rants doivent savoir anticiper), mais il semble n\u00e9anmoins que leur nombre et l\u2019ampleur des baisses de prix ont bel et bien augment\u00e9 en 2018, comme en t\u00e9moigne le graphique ci-dessous\u00a0:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Les secteurs de la distribution et de la construction se d\u00e9marquent tout particuli\u00e8rement. Concernant la distribution, les d\u00e9fis que le commerce en ligne impose aux distributeurs traditionnels sont d\u00e9sormais bien connus et leur impact se fait toujours sentir\u00a0: les obligations de l\u2019op\u00e9rateur de cha\u00eenes de grands magasins Debenhams, du distributeur allemand de produits cosm\u00e9tiques Douglas et du distributeur fran\u00e7ais IKKS ont encore sous-perform\u00e9, car les consommateurs pr\u00e9f\u00e8rent cliquer sur leur souris que de se rendre physiquement dans les points de vente.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Cette situation n\u2019a rien d\u2019\u00e9tonnant puisque la tendance n\u00e9gative que conna\u00eet le secteur de la distribution est connue depuis quelque temps et la baisse des prix des obligations s\u2019est r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9e non pas abrupte mais tr\u00e8s progressive (cf. graphique). Les vieilles habitudes ont la vie dure.<\/p>\n

Le secteur de la construction s\u2019est quant \u00e0 lui comport\u00e9 diff\u00e9remment\u00a0: la baisse des prix des obligations des entreprises italiennes CMC Ravenna et Astaldi a \u00e9t\u00e9 bien plus rapide et plus prononc\u00e9e (cf. graphique). Ces entreprises ont \u00e9t\u00e9 p\u00e9nalis\u00e9es par des r\u00e9sultats m\u00e9diocres et, dans le cas d\u2019Astaldi, par une cession avort\u00e9e et une lev\u00e9e de capital.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Ces \u00e9missions ont subi une baisse de prix nettement plus soudaine qui ne tient probablement pas \u00e0 une d\u00e9gradation des fondamentaux \u00e0 long terme, puisque ce processus se d\u00e9roule plut\u00f4t sur de longues p\u00e9riodes de temps. Que se passe-t-il\u00a0? Deux id\u00e9es viennent alors \u00e0 l\u2019esprit\u00a0:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Petite \u00e9volution, grandes cons\u00e9quences\u00a0<\/strong>: Compte tenu des spreads de cr\u00e9dit relativement serr\u00e9s et prolong\u00e9s et des faibles rendements globaux (all-in yields<\/em>), il suffit d’un l\u00e9ger changement dans la vision du march\u00e9 sur un cr\u00e9dit pour d\u00e9clencher une forte baisse des prix. Par le pass\u00e9 (et comme le montre le graphique ci-dessous), le niveau plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 des rendements et des coupons permettait de se prot\u00e9ger contre les pertes en capital car le revenu repr\u00e9sentait une part plus importante de la performance totale. Aujourd’hui, en revanche, les valorisations de march\u00e9 int\u00e8grent d\u2019excellentes perspectives pour les fondamentaux. Ainsi, en cas de d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration, la baisse du prix semble beaucoup plus prononc\u00e9e. \"\"<\/a><\/li>\n
  2. Tout ou rien\u00a0<\/strong>: La faiblesse des rendements accro\u00eet \u00e9galement le risque d\u2019une variation brutale des prix (gap risk<\/em>) d\u2019une autre mani\u00e8re car la plupart des obligations pourraient voir leur prix se stabiliser lorsque les acheteurs non-traditionnels, comme les investisseurs s\u2019int\u00e9ressant \u00e0 la dette distressed<\/em> commenceront \u00e0 rep\u00e9rer des poches de valeur. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que les investisseurs ont tendance \u00e0 consid\u00e9rer la valeur de recouvrement dans une situation de d\u00e9faut comme un plancher de valorisation (plut\u00f4t que le rendement), la baisse du prix d’une obligation dont le rendement est faible mais \u00e9gal \u00e0 une obligation non performante n\u00e9goci\u00e9e \u00e0 la valeur de recouvrement peut \u00eatre beaucoup plus importante.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Dans ce contexte (rendements faibles, spreads resserr\u00e9s et ralentissement de la croissance en Europe), les obligations \u00e0 haut rendement se comportent diff\u00e9remment que par le pass\u00e9. C\u2019est pourquoi je pense que les investisseurs pr\u00e9sents sur le march\u00e9 High yield<\/em> devraient \u00eatre encore plus vigilants vis-\u00e0-vis du risque asym\u00e9trique \u00e0 la baisse. Un rendement suppl\u00e9mentaire de 50 \u00e0 100 points de base peut \u00eatre effac\u00e9 par une baisse soudaine de 25\u00a0% du prix d\u2019une obligation individuelle. Le march\u00e9 des obligations \u00e0 haut rendement est un march\u00e9 bottom-up<\/em> qui impose une s\u00e9lection tr\u00e8s rigoureuse des titres.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    L\u2019ann\u00e9e 2018 ne restera probablement pas dans les annales en mati\u00e8re de performance totale sur le march\u00e9 europ\u00e9en des obligations \u00e0 haut rendement. En effet, l\u2019\u00e9cartement des spreads s\u2019est traduit par de l\u00e9g\u00e8res moins-values, qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 peine compens\u00e9es par un revenu relativement faible de 3,2\u00a0%, donnant lieu \u00e0 une performance totale an\u00e9mique de 0,22\u00a0% depuis le 1er janvier. Un profil inint\u00e9ressant et ennuyeux\u00a0? Oui, mais seulement en apparence. Les tendances sous-jacentes sont bien plus r\u00e9v\u00e9latrices et lourdes de sens pour les investisseurs. Chaque…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":3511,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[287,241],"tags":[182],"class_list":["post-3403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-les-obligations-de-societes","tag-high-yield"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAttention, le High Yield europ\u00e9en marche sur la ligne de cr\u00eate - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L\u2019ann\u00e9e 2018 ne restera probablement pas dans les annales en mati\u00e8re de performance totale sur le march\u00e9 europ\u00e9en des obligations \u00e0 haut rendement. 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