{"id":3609,"date":"2018-12-05T19:14:27","date_gmt":"2018-12-05T19:14:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=3609"},"modified":"2018-12-10T19:32:11","modified_gmt":"2018-12-10T19:32:11","slug":"can-general-electric-ease-pain-bbbs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/12\/can-general-electric-ease-pain-bbbs\/","title":{"rendered":"Le g\u00e9ant General Electric peut-il aider \u00e0 apaiser les craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des \u00e9metteurs BBB ?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Les effets positifs et n\u00e9gatifs de l\u2019intervention des banques centrales au lendemain de la crise financi\u00e8re de 2007-2008 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 largement discut\u00e9s et, dix ans plus tard, ne sont toujours pas enti\u00e8rement compris. Par exemple, maintenir artificiellement les co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt au plus bas pendant des ann\u00e9es a certes contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 stimuler la croissance \u00e9conomique (formidable), mais en incitant les entreprises \u00e0 s\u2019endetter davantage (pas si formidable que cela). L\u2019augmentation des niveaux d\u2019endettement m\u2019am\u00e8ne \u00e9galement \u00e0 me demander si les conditions financi\u00e8res n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 assouplies pendant trop longtemps dans la mesure o\u00f9 cela a permis aux entreprises de s\u2019endetter et d\u2019accro\u00eetre ainsi le risque de cr\u00e9dit. Comme l\u2019illustre le graphique, le segment \u00ab\u00a0investment grade\u00a0\u00bb le moins bien not\u00e9 de l\u2019univers des entreprises am\u00e9ricaines a connu un tel essor qu\u2019il p\u00e8se d\u00e9sormais 3 000 milliards de dollars, soit pr\u00e8s de la moiti\u00e9 de la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re de l\u2019ensemble du march\u00e9 \u00ab\u00a0investment grade\u00a0\u00bb am\u00e9ricain et presque trois fois la taille du march\u00e9 \u00e0 haut rendement am\u00e9ricain.<\/p>\n

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Seul l\u2019avenir nous dira si la forte augmentation g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e de la dette des entreprises nous rapprochera de la prochaine r\u00e9cession. Mais, en ce qui concerne les inqui\u00e9tudes grandissantes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des \u00e9metteurs not\u00e9s BBB, dans quelle mesure leur risque est-il imminent ? Leur r\u00e9cente correction est-elle r\u00e9v\u00e9latrice de leurs v\u00e9ritables fondamentaux ?<\/p>\n

Commen\u00e7ons par examiner le segment le plus \u00e0 risque, celui des obligations am\u00e9ricaines BBB- avec une perspective n\u00e9gative et qui sont les plus proches de la fronti\u00e8re du haut rendement. Comme le montre le graphique, ce groupe \u00e0 risque a en fait consid\u00e9rablement diminu\u00e9 au cours des deux derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es et, selon Cr\u00e9dit Suisse, devrait continuer \u00e0 le faire. A l\u2019heure actuelle, le groupe ne repr\u00e9sente qu\u2019environ 5 % de l\u2019univers BBB- am\u00e9ricain, ce qui tend \u00e0 indiquer un faible risque de d\u00e9gradation \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n

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Cette r\u00e9duction est principalement due \u00e0 la vigueur de la croissance \u00e9conomique (le PIB mondial devrait encore cro\u00eetre de 3,7 % en 2019 et de 2,9 % aux \u00c9tats-Unis selon le FMI). Une telle situation se traduit g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement par une hausse des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des entreprises et, \u00e0 terme, par une am\u00e9lioration de l\u2019\u00e9tat de sant\u00e9 des bilans.<\/p>\n

S\u2019il est vrai que la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices par action (BPA) pourrait avoir atteint son point culminant \u00e0 la suite des baisses d\u2019imp\u00f4t aux \u00c9tats-Unis, il convient toutefois de ne pas oublier que la croissance des BPA sur 12 mois des entreprises de l\u2019indice S&P 1500 demeure sur une solide trajectoire de plus de 20 % au troisi\u00e8me trimestre. Comme l\u2019illustre le graphique, cet environnement positif a favoris\u00e9 un plus grand nombre d\u2019\u00e9toiles montantes (ces \u00e9metteurs relev\u00e9s des cat\u00e9gories \u00e0 haut rendement \u00e0 \u00ab\u00a0investment grade\u00a0\u00bb) que d\u2019anges d\u00e9chus (l\u2019inverse).<\/p>\n

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Le chiffre des anges d\u00e9chus pourrait bien s\u00fbr exploser si l\u2019un de ces anges se trouvait \u00eatre une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 avec une large structure du capital. L\u2019une des entreprises qui a r\u00e9cemment perdu sa notation A est le g\u00e9ant industriel am\u00e9ricain General Electric – la 87\u00e8me<\/sup> plus grande soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de l\u2019indice S&P 500. Elle poss\u00e8de une dette notionnelle de pr\u00e8s de 50 milliards de dollars et dont la majorit\u00e9 pourrait faire son entr\u00e9e sur le march\u00e9 \u00e0 haut rendement en cas de d\u00e9gradation de plusieurs crans. Dans quelle mesure ce risque est-il imm\u00e9diat pour les investisseurs ?<\/p>\n

Les craintes de d\u00e9gradation de GE sont encore sp\u00e9culatives. L\u2019entreprise tente de consolider sa tr\u00e9sorerie et son bilan, et pourrait bien conserver son statut \u00ab\u00a0investment grade\u00a0\u00bb apr\u00e8s tout. Dans la mesure o\u00f9 la liquidit\u00e9, g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement la pr\u00e9occupation n\u00b01 des investisseurs, appara\u00eet abondante, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 s\u2019emploie d\u00e9sormais \u00e0 am\u00e9liorer ses flux de tr\u00e9sorerie disponible et la structure de son bilan. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui se situent \u00e0 la limite inf\u00e9rieure de l\u2019univers \u00ab\u00a0investment grade\u00a0\u00bb sont en effet fortement incit\u00e9es \u00e0 conserver leurs notations de cr\u00e9dit dans la mesure o\u00f9 une baisse des notations \u00e0 long terme de BBB- \u00e0 BB+ augmente sensiblement les co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt, certains investisseurs \u00e9tant emp\u00each\u00e9s de d\u00e9tenir des \u00e9metteurs \u00e0 haut rendement.<\/p>\n

Toutefois, GE conserve une notation BBB+ assortie de perspectives stables de la part des trois principales agences de notation de cr\u00e9dit ; la cat\u00e9gorie sp\u00e9culative n\u2019est donc pas encore pour demain pour ce g\u00e9ant industriel. Le point important au cours des prochains trimestres sera de voir si le nouveau Directeur g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de GE parviendra \u00e0 tenir sa promesse d\u2019une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration du d\u00e9sendettement et d\u2019un redressement de la division \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 structurellement en difficult\u00e9. Le tout, sur fond d\u2019enqu\u00eates en cours au minist\u00e8re de la Justice et \u00e0 la SEC, ainsi que de certaines proc\u00e9dures judicaires entre actionnaires.<\/p>\n

Afin de r\u00e9tablir la confiance du march\u00e9, GE se doit de proc\u00e9der \u00e0 un d\u00e9sendettement rapide et d\u2019am\u00e9liorer les flux de tr\u00e9sorerie disponible de mani\u00e8re durable. Des mesures concr\u00e8tes dans ce sens sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 manifestes avec un dividende presque r\u00e9duit \u00e0 n\u00e9ant et une cession anticip\u00e9e de la participation dans Baker Hughes, avant une sortie du secteur de la sant\u00e9 pr\u00e9vue en 2019.<\/p>\n

Si la direction y parvient, la valorisation actuelle de ce groupe not\u00e9 BBB+ pourrait bel et bien offrir une int\u00e9ressante opportunit\u00e9 d\u2019achat aux investisseurs obligataires – et apaiser certaines des inqui\u00e9tudes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019univers BBB.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les effets positifs et n\u00e9gatifs de l\u2019intervention des banques centrales au lendemain de la crise financi\u00e8re de 2007-2008 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 largement discut\u00e9s et, dix ans plus tard, ne sont toujours pas enti\u00e8rement compris. Par exemple, maintenir artificiellement les co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt au plus bas pendant des ann\u00e9es a certes contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 stimuler la croissance \u00e9conomique (formidable), mais en incitant les entreprises \u00e0 s\u2019endetter davantage (pas si formidable que cela). L\u2019augmentation des niveaux d\u2019endettement m\u2019am\u00e8ne \u00e9galement \u00e0 me demander si les conditions financi\u00e8res n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 assouplies…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":107,"featured_media":3624,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[70,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banques-centrales-2","category-credit"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLe g\u00e9ant General Electric peut-il aider \u00e0 apaiser les craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des \u00e9metteurs BBB ? - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les effets positifs et n\u00e9gatifs de l\u2019intervention des banques centrales au lendemain de la crise financi\u00e8re de 2007-2008 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 largement discut\u00e9s et,\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/12\/can-general-electric-ease-pain-bbbs\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Mario Eisenegger\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/12\/can-general-electric-ease-pain-bbbs\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/12\/can-general-electric-ease-pain-bbbs\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Mario Eisenegger\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/#\/schema\/person\/373ae74798e4406641c6ba2da1fa57f8\"},\"headline\":\"Le g\u00e9ant General Electric peut-il aider \u00e0 apaiser les craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des \u00e9metteurs BBB ?\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-12-05T19:14:27+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-12-10T19:32:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/12\/can-general-electric-ease-pain-bbbs\/\"},\"wordCount\":980,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/12\/can-general-electric-ease-pain-bbbs\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-fr-P18-12-024-Can-General-Electric-ease-the-pain-of-BBBs.FR-VF.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Banques centrales\",\"Cr\u00e9dit\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/12\/can-general-electric-ease-pain-bbbs\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/12\/can-general-electric-ease-pain-bbbs\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2018\/12\/can-general-electric-ease-pain-bbbs\/\",\"name\":\"Le g\u00e9ant General Electric peut-il aider \u00e0 apaiser les craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des \u00e9metteurs BBB ? 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