{"id":3663,"date":"2019-01-18T10:04:57","date_gmt":"2019-01-18T10:04:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=3663"},"modified":"2021-12-03T16:09:33","modified_gmt":"2021-12-03T16:09:33","slug":"war-indices-inflation-measure-use","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2019\/01\/war-indices-inflation-measure-use\/","title":{"rendered":"La guerre des indices : quelle mesure d&rsquo;inflation utiliser ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s un long examen, la Chambre des Lords britannique a finalement annonc\u00e9 que l&rsquo;indice d&rsquo;inflation actuellement utilis\u00e9 pour valoriser les titres index\u00e9s, les tarifs du transport ferroviaire, ou les pr\u00eats accord\u00e9s aux \u00e9tudiants, devait \u00eatre remplac\u00e9. \u00c0 la place, l&rsquo;Indice des Prix \u00e0 la Consommation (IPC) devrait devenir la nouvelle r\u00e9f\u00e9rence en la mati\u00e8re, car il int\u00e8gre davantage d&rsquo;\u00e9l\u00e9ments et est globalement plus fiable. Jusqu&rsquo;ici, tout va bien. Sauf si vous \u00eates un investisseur.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-FeNLYvnU\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3686\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>L&rsquo;institut statistique britannique (\u00ab\u00a0Office for National Statistics\u00a0\u00bb ou ONS) a reconnu les limites de l&rsquo;Indice des Prix de D\u00e9tail (IPD) actuellement utilis\u00e9, qui a d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 abandonn\u00e9 en tant que statistique nationale officielle. Mais l\u2019ONS pr\u00e9f\u00e9rerait cependant tenter de l\u2019am\u00e9liorer. Dans tous les cas, il ne s\u2019agit pas d\u2019un combat entre les Lords et l\u2019ONS, car tout changement rel\u00e8ve du pouvoir du ministre des finances, ce dernier \u00e9tant confront\u00e9 \u00e0 cette question depuis un certain nombre d&rsquo;ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2021\/12\/18\/the-uks-ons-admits-an-error-again-is-the-wedge-poised-to-go-even-higher\/?noredirect=fr_FR\">Nous avons \u00e0 de nombreuses reprises parl\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9cart entre l&rsquo;IPC et de l&rsquo;IPD (connu sous le nom de \u00ab\u00a0wedge\u00a0\u00bb)<\/a><\/strong>. Mais juste pour rappel, l&rsquo;IPD est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 non seulement parce qu\u2019il est calcul\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019aide d&rsquo;une formule diff\u00e9rente, mais surtout parce qu\u2019il int\u00e8gre une composante immobili\u00e8re (prix des biens et paiement des int\u00e9r\u00eats sur emprunts immobiliers), ce qui n\u2019est pas le cas de l&rsquo;IPC. Sur le long terme, l\u2019IPD a ainsi d\u00e9pass\u00e9 l\u2019IPC d\u2019environ 100 points de base (pb), refl\u00e9tant bien l&rsquo;envol\u00e9e du march\u00e9 immobilier britannique.<\/p>\n<p>Quel est donc le probl\u00e8me de l\u2019IPD\u00a0? Pendant longtemps, de nombreux observateurs ont fait valoir que cette diff\u00e9rence conduisait \u00e0 des choix arbitraires d\u2019indices\u00a0: les d\u00e9penses ont ainsi tendance \u00e0 suivre l\u2019IPC (la mesure la plus basse), tandis que les revenus et les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices suivent une tendance haussi\u00e8re quand ils sont index\u00e9s sur l\u2019IPD (mesure la plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e). Les emprunts d\u2019\u00c9tat britanniques index\u00e9s sur l\u2019inflation suivent l\u2019IPD (mesure la plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e). Ainsi, ces titres ont imm\u00e9diatement chut\u00e9 lorsque la Chambre Haute a pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 cette semaine sa recommandation\u00a0: les rendements des \u00ab\u00a0linkers\u00a0\u00bb (ou obligations index\u00e9es sur l&rsquo;inflation) ont bondi pour atteindre leur plus haut niveau depuis novembre, comme le montre le graphique ci-dessous.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/2-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-FeNLYvnU\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3688\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/2-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/2-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/2-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/2-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>La Chambre des Lords a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que le changement de calcul de l\u2019IPD introduit en 2011 et modifiant sa composante habillement devait \u00eatre abandonn\u00e9. Cette mesure visait \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9poque \u00e0 r\u00e9duire la reconnaissance de prix de certains articles, mais a eu l\u2019effet oppos\u00e9. Cette premi\u00e8re recommandation apparait \u00e0 la fois ais\u00e9e et \u00e9vidente\u00a0: si la m\u00e9thode de calcul \u00e9tait modifi\u00e9e, l\u2019IPD pourrait baisser de 25 pb, et m\u00eame de 50 pb selon certaines estimations\u00a0! Toutes choses \u00e9gales par ailleurs, cet ajustement conduirait \u00e0 une baisse des points morts d&rsquo;inflation (utilis\u00e9s comme estimation des anticipations d&rsquo;inflation) de 25 \u00e0 50 pb. Un tel mouvement serait tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9judiciable pour les taux r\u00e9els (les taux r\u00e9els augmentent quand les anticipations d&rsquo;inflation baissent). En termes de valorisation, une baisse de 25 \u00e0 50 pb de l\u2019IPD entra\u00eenerait un recul de l&rsquo;obligation index\u00e9e britannique de maturit\u00e9 2\u00a0068 estim\u00e9 entre 12\u00a0% et presque un quart de sa valeur\u00a0!<\/p>\n<p>Plus important, la Chambre a \u00e9galement recommand\u00e9 que les nouvelles \u00e9missions de \u00ab linkers \u00bb soient d\u00e9sormais index\u00e9es sur l\u2019IPC et non plus sur l\u2019IPD. Il y a cinq ans, une consultation avait examin\u00e9 l\u2019abandon de l\u2019IPD, mais l&rsquo;impact d\u2019une telle mesure aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 si pr\u00e9judiciable que la commission d\u00e9cida de ne rien faire. Les points morts d\u2019inflation avaient alors rebondi, traduisant le soulagement du march\u00e9. Si le changement intervenait maintenant et que les obligations index\u00e9es \u00e9taient d\u00e9sormais r\u00e9f\u00e9renc\u00e9es sur l&rsquo;IPC, et en supposant un diff\u00e9rentiel de 100 points de base avec l\u2019IPD, le prix de l&rsquo;obligation de maturit\u00e9 2068 serait quasiment divis\u00e9 par deux\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Heureusement pour les investisseurs, les grands changements r\u00e9glementaires sur les march\u00e9s financiers ont tendance \u00e0 \u00eatre g\u00e9r\u00e9s de fa\u00e7on un peu plus subtile\u00a0: il est davantage probable que le Tr\u00e9sor britannique annonce son intention d&rsquo;\u00e9mettre des obligations index\u00e9es sur l&rsquo;IPC qui pourraient coexister avec les titres d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9mis r\u00e9f\u00e9renc\u00e9s sur l\u2019IPD, tout en cessant d&rsquo;\u00e9mettre de nouveaux \u00ab\u00a0linkers\u00a0\u00bb sur l\u2019IPD. Cela prendrait n\u00e9anmoins un certain nombre d&rsquo;ann\u00e9es. Il faudrait en effet pr\u00e9parer le march\u00e9 \u00e0 ce changement pour que l\u2019ensemble des implications soient bien comprises. Apr\u00e8s cette revue des Lords et ces ann\u00e9es de r\u00e9flexion, je suis certain que le ministre des finances et le Tr\u00e9sor sont bien conscients qu&rsquo;une simple bascule de l\u2019IPD vers \u00e0 l&rsquo;IPC pourrait avoir un effet similaire aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements de cr\u00e9dit tant redout\u00e9s par les investisseurs (synonyme habituellement d\u2019un changement n\u00e9gatif qui r\u00e9duit la capacit\u00e9 des \u00e9metteurs \u00e0 rembourser leurs dettes). Les porteurs de ces obligations en sortiraient certainement perdants. Cela ne ferait pas tr\u00e8s bonne impression pour un pays pr\u00e9sentant un d\u00e9ficit important de son compte courant, le rendant d\u00e9pendant des capitaux \u00e9trangers.<\/p>\n<p>Tout compte fait, je n\u2019anticipe pas de p\u00e9riodes radieuses tant que les questions du diff\u00e9rentiel et des nouvelles \u00e9missions r\u00e9f\u00e9renc\u00e9es sur l\u2019IPC restent ouvertes. Cependant, les titres index\u00e9s sur l\u2019IPD pourraient se traiter \u00e0 court terme sur des niveaux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s si leurs nouvelles \u00e9missions venaient \u00e0 disparaitre. N\u00e9anmoins, compte tenu de valorisations actuellement tendues (les points morts sont sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 3\u00a0% sur l\u2019ensemble de la courbe), j\u2019anticipe davantage de risque baissier\u00a0: s&rsquo;il est vrai que la probabilit\u00e9 d&rsquo;un \u00ab\u00a0hard\u00a0Brexit\u00a0\u00bb s\u2019est r\u00e9duite, une livre sterling plus forte viendrait contrecarrer toute pression inflationniste. La livre sterling se traite encore 12 % en dessous de son niveau pr\u00e9-r\u00e9f\u00e9rendum de 2016. Elle pr\u00e9sente donc un fort potentiel d\u2019appr\u00e9ciation. Mais c&rsquo;est une autre histoire. Restez connect\u00e9 \u00e0 notre blog. Je reviendrai bient\u00f4t avec de nouveaux commentaires au fur et mesure des \u00e9v\u00e9nements. Et on peut \u00eatre certain qu\u2019il y en aura\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Apr\u00e8s un long examen, la Chambre des Lords britannique a finalement annonc\u00e9 que l&rsquo;indice d&rsquo;inflation actuellement utilis\u00e9 pour valoriser les titres index\u00e9s, les tarifs du transport ferroviaire, ou les pr\u00eats accord\u00e9s aux \u00e9tudiants, devait \u00eatre remplac\u00e9. \u00c0 la place, l&rsquo;Indice des Prix \u00e0 la Consommation (IPC) devrait devenir la nouvelle r\u00e9f\u00e9rence en la mati\u00e8re, car il int\u00e8gre davantage d&rsquo;\u00e9l\u00e9ments et est globalement plus fiable. Jusqu&rsquo;ici, tout va bien. Sauf si vous \u00eates un investisseur. L&rsquo;institut statistique britannique (\u00ab\u00a0Office for National Statistics\u00a0\u00bb ou ONS) a reconnu&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":3686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,240],"tags":[156,157],"class_list":["post-3663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-inflation","category-uk","tag-cpi","tag-rpi"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.8 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>La guerre des indices : quelle mesure d&#039;inflation utiliser ? - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Apr\u00e8s un long examen, la Chambre des Lords britannique a finalement annonc\u00e9 que l&#039;indice d&#039;inflation actuellement utilis\u00e9 pour valoriser les titres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2019\/01\/war-indices-inflation-measure-use\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ben Lord\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/01\\\/war-indices-inflation-measure-use\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/01\\\/war-indices-inflation-measure-use\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ben Lord\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c4eecb682f956ed5d137f38e9a3137c1\"},\"headline\":\"La guerre des indices : quelle mesure d&rsquo;inflation utiliser ?\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-01-18T10:04:57+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-12-03T16:09:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/01\\\/war-indices-inflation-measure-use\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1059,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/01\\\/war-indices-inflation-measure-use\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/1-FR-P19-01-134-The-war-of-the-indices-which-inflation-measure-to-use-FR-VF.png\",\"keywords\":[\"CPI\",\"RPI\"],\"articleSection\":[\"inflation\",\"UK\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/01\\\/war-indices-inflation-measure-use\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/01\\\/war-indices-inflation-measure-use\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/01\\\/war-indices-inflation-measure-use\\\/\",\"name\":\"La guerre des indices : quelle mesure d'inflation utiliser ? 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