{"id":3736,"date":"2019-02-28T14:01:25","date_gmt":"2019-02-28T14:01:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=3736"},"modified":"2019-03-05T16:33:57","modified_gmt":"2019-03-05T16:33:57","slug":"diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2019\/02\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"Les destins divergents des anticipations d&rsquo;inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Les anticipations d&rsquo;inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Europe ont derni\u00e8rement diverg\u00e9 sans que cela ne constitue une v\u00e9ritable surprise. Apr\u00e8s tout, la croissance annuelle du PIB am\u00e9ricain a atteint un solide rythme de 2,6\u00a0% en termes r\u00e9els au 4\u00e8me trimestre 2018. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage est retomb\u00e9 sous le seuil des 4\u00a0%, exer\u00e7ant une pression \u00e0 la hausse sur les salaires, tandis que les indicateurs du sentiment \u00e9conomique tels que le PMI restent fermement ancr\u00e9s en territoire expansionniste. \u00c0 l\u2019oppos\u00e9, les perspectives \u00e9conomiques de la zone euro se sont consid\u00e9rablement assombries l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re. L&rsquo;\u00e9conomie italienne s\u2019est contract\u00e9e au cours du 4\u00e8me trimestre 2018 et l&rsquo;Allemagne a \u00e9vit\u00e9 de peu la r\u00e9cession. Les PMI europ\u00e9ens se sont en cons\u00e9quence inscrits en baisse.<\/p>\n<p>Dans ce contexte, l&rsquo;\u00e9cart croissant des anticipations d\u2019inflation entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Europe apparait parfaitement logique. Je dirais cependant que l&rsquo;ampleur du mouvement a surpris par son caract\u00e8re extr\u00eame. Si l\u2019on compare les points morts d\u2019inflation \u00e0 10 ans, qui sont consid\u00e9r\u00e9s comme une estimation des anticipations d\u2019inflation \u00e0 moyen terme, l\u2019\u00e9cart entre les bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain index\u00e9s sur l\u2019inflation (TIPS) d\u2019une part, et les Bunds allemands index\u00e9s (qui ont pour r\u00e9f\u00e9rence l&rsquo;inflation de la zone euro) d\u2019autre part, a grimp\u00e9 au-del\u00e0 des 100 points de base (pb). Pour remettre cela en perspective, l\u2019\u00e9cart des points morts d\u2019inflation \u00e0 10 ans entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Europe a plus que tripl\u00e9 depuis la fin 2015.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-zVsVUPD9\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3739\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/1-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Il est \u00e9galement int\u00e9ressant de noter combien les trajectoires de ces anticipations d\u2019inflation ont diverg\u00e9 de part et d\u2019autre de l&rsquo;Atlantique au cours de la r\u00e9cente remont\u00e9e des prix du p\u00e9trole. Alors que le point mort d\u2019inflation \u00e0 10 ans am\u00e9ricain a rebondi depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e (+25 pb) au m\u00eame rythme que les cours du p\u00e9trole brut, son \u00e9quivalent de la zone euro est rest\u00e9 compl\u00e8tement imperturbable et a m\u00eame poursuivi sa tendance baissi\u00e8re (-7 pb depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e). Je vous l\u2019accorde, en raison des moindres taxes sur le carburant en vigueur aux \u00c9tats-Unis, les variations du prix du p\u00e9trole ont un impact plus imm\u00e9diat sur les chiffres de l\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaine que sur leurs homologues europ\u00e9ens, au moins sur courtes p\u00e9riodes. Cependant, nous devrions prendre le temps de r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir pour savoir si la forte corr\u00e9lation entre le point mort d&rsquo;inflation \u00e0 10 ans aux \u00c9tats-Unis et les variations du prix du p\u00e9trole brut au comptant se justifie vraiment. En fait, \u00e0 moins que le prix du p\u00e9trole continue de progresser chaque ann\u00e9e au cours de la prochaine d\u00e9cennie, les effets de base ne devraient pas tarder \u00e0 apparaitre et l&rsquo;impact inflationniste du r\u00e9cent rebond du prix du p\u00e9trole risque de n\u2019\u00eatre qu\u2019un feu de paille.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/2-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-zVsVUPD9\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3741\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/2-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/2-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/2-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/2-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>En tenant compte \u00e0 la fois de l&rsquo;ampleur de leur surperformance par rapport aux obligations europ\u00e9ennes index\u00e9es sur l&rsquo;inflation et de leur r\u00e9action tr\u00e8s positive face aux r\u00e9cents mouvements du prix du p\u00e9trole, les TIPS am\u00e9ricains ne m&rsquo;apparaissent plus particuli\u00e8rement attractifs. Avec un point mort d\u2019inflation \u00e0 10 ans aux \u00c9tats-Unis proche de la cible d\u2019inflation de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale fix\u00e9e \u00e0 2\u00a0%, les valorisations semblent justes, mais sans plus. En comparaison, les niveaux d\u00e9grad\u00e9s des points morts d&rsquo;inflation en Europe signifient que tant que l&rsquo;inflation de la zone euro ressort sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 seulement 0,9\u00a0% en moyenne au cours des dix prochaines ann\u00e9es, les Bunds index\u00e9s surperformeront leurs homologues \u00e0 taux fixe, toutes choses \u00e9gales par ailleurs. Ce taux d\u2019inflation bien faible me semble un seuil plut\u00f4t facile \u00e0 d\u00e9passer. En d&rsquo;autres termes, les investisseurs peuvent actuellement acheter une assurance contre toute mauvaise surprise inflationniste en zone euro en achetant des obligations europ\u00e9ennes index\u00e9es sur l\u2019inflation sur des niveaux d\u2019entr\u00e9e tr\u00e8s bon march\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les anticipations d&rsquo;inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Europe ont derni\u00e8rement diverg\u00e9 sans que cela ne constitue une v\u00e9ritable surprise. Apr\u00e8s tout, la croissance annuelle du PIB am\u00e9ricain a atteint un solide rythme de 2,6\u00a0% en termes r\u00e9els au 4\u00e8me trimestre 2018. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage est retomb\u00e9 sous le seuil des 4\u00a0%, exer\u00e7ant une pression \u00e0 la hausse sur les salaires, tandis que les indicateurs du sentiment \u00e9conomique tels que le PMI restent fermement ancr\u00e9s en territoire expansionniste. \u00c0 l\u2019oppos\u00e9, les perspectives \u00e9conomiques de la&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":85,"featured_media":3741,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[287,28,158,248],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-inflation","category-petrole","category-reserve-federale"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.8 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Les destins divergents des anticipations d&#039;inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Europe - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les anticipations d&#039;inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Europe ont derni\u00e8rement diverg\u00e9 sans que cela ne constitue une v\u00e9ritable surprise. Apr\u00e8s tout, la\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2019\/02\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Wolfgang Bauer\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Wolfgang Bauer\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/9c7e5af2cd398614a69442588f7066ea\"},\"headline\":\"Les destins divergents des anticipations d&rsquo;inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Europe\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-02-28T14:01:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-03-05T16:33:57+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":696,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/2-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Europe\",\"inflation\",\"p\u00e9trole\",\"r\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\\\/\",\"name\":\"Les destins divergents des anticipations d'inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Europe - Francais\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/2019\\\/02\\\/diverging-fortunes-inflation-expectations-us-europe\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/4\\\/2021\\\/12\\\/2-FR-P19-02-226-Diverging-fortunes-of-inflation-expectations-in-the-US-and-Europe.pptx-FR-VF.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-02-28T14:01:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-03-05T16:33:57+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/bondvigilantes.com\\\/francais\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/9c7e5af2cd398614a69442588f7066ea\"},\"description\":\"Les anticipations d'inflation aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Europe ont derni\u00e8rement diverg\u00e9 sans que cela ne constitue une v\u00e9ritable surprise. 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