{"id":478,"date":"2014-08-29T14:09:06","date_gmt":"2014-08-29T14:09:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/?p=478"},"modified":"2014-08-29T14:10:50","modified_gmt":"2014-08-29T14:10:50","slug":"periode-exceptionnelle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/francais\/2014\/08\/periode-exceptionnelle\/","title":{"rendered":"Une p\u00e9riode exceptionnelle"},"content":{"rendered":"

Les taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat – tant \u00e0 court qu’\u00e0 long terme – se situent \u00e0 des plus bas records en Europe. La cause de ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne est la conviction que l’emploi et l’inflation resteront d\u00e9prim\u00e9s pour une p\u00e9riode prolong\u00e9e. Cette situation inqui\u00e8te la BCE, et le discours prononc\u00e9 par Mario Draghi lors du sommet de Jackson Hole laisse penser qu’un nouvel assouplissement mon\u00e9taire se profile. Il semble que nous vivions une p\u00e9riode exceptionnelle.<\/p>\n

La mani\u00e8re dont nous en sommes arriv\u00e9s l\u00e0 est assez simple \u00e0 comprendre\u00a0: un effondrement du secteur bancaire international en 2008, suivi localement de d\u00e9g\u00e2ts s\u00e9v\u00e8res au sein du syst\u00e8me bancaire europ\u00e9en du fait de la crise de la dette souveraine en 2011 et 2012.<\/p>\n

Le graphique ci-dessous vise \u00e0 montrer l’\u00e9volution des taux d’emprunt r\u00e9els. L’utilisation d’un indicateur indirect des co\u00fbts de financement rapport\u00e9 \u00e0 l’Euribor trois mois donne une meilleure id\u00e9e des conditions mon\u00e9taires r\u00e9elles que le simple examen du taux directeur de la BCE. Si la politique mon\u00e9taire durant la crise europ\u00e9enne a \u00e9t\u00e9 resserr\u00e9e dans les pays du c\u0153ur de l’Europe, elle l’a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus encore dans les pays p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques.<\/p>\n

\"Slide1\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Les graphiques suivants comparent les taux d’inflation et les chiffres de l’emploi des pays du c\u0153ur de l’Europe et des pays p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques. Nous observons que le resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire conduit par la suite \u00e0 une hausse du ch\u00f4mage et \u00e0 un recul de l’inflation. La faiblesse de la zone euro et notamment des pays p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques n’est gu\u00e8re surprenante compte tenu de la s\u00e9v\u00e9rit\u00e9 du choc subi durant la crise. Cette constatation laisse penser que la politique mon\u00e9taire reste efficace.<\/p>\n

\"Slide2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"Slide3\"<\/a><\/p>\n

La politique mon\u00e9taire r\u00e9elle a ensuite \u00e9t\u00e9 consid\u00e9rablement assouplie \u00e0 partir de l’\u00e9t\u00e9 2012 jusqu’\u00e0 aujourd’hui. Cet assouplissement devrait doper l’\u00e9conomie de la zone euro et plus particuli\u00e8rement celle des pays p\u00e9riph\u00e9riques. Il est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement admis qu\u2019une politique mon\u00e9taire produit ses effets avec un d\u00e9calage de 18 mois. Or, il est int\u00e9ressant de noter que le ch\u00f4mage commence d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 reculer. Je m’attends \u00e0 ce que cette tendance se poursuive.<\/p>\n

Nous vivons une p\u00e9riode exceptionnelle s’agissant des taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat, mais du point de vue \u00e9conomique, le ch\u00f4mage a d\u00e9j\u00e0 atteint des niveaux aussi \u00e9lev\u00e9s entre 1994 et 1997 et l’inflation s’est montr\u00e9e inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 1% en 1999 et en 2009.<\/p>\n

Lorsque l’\u00e9conomie et les march\u00e9s s’opposent, toute la question est de savoir quel indicateur est fiable. Selon moi, la politique mon\u00e9taire est fiable et l’assouplissement massif orchestr\u00e9 \u00e0 partir de 2012 entra\u00eenera une baisse du ch\u00f4mage et permettra d’\u00e9viter une d\u00e9flation majeure. Le niveau exceptionnellement bas des taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat en Europe ne semble pas \u00eatre en ad\u00e9quation avec les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques actuelles et leur \u00e9volution potentielle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat – tant \u00e0 court qu’\u00e0 long terme – se situent \u00e0 des plus bas records en Europe. La cause de ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne est la conviction que l’emploi et l’inflation resteront d\u00e9prim\u00e9s pour une p\u00e9riode prolong\u00e9e. Cette situation inqui\u00e8te la BCE, et le discours prononc\u00e9 par Mario Draghi lors du sommet de Jackson Hole laisse penser qu’un nouvel assouplissement mon\u00e9taire se profile. Il semble que nous vivions une p\u00e9riode exceptionnelle. La mani\u00e8re dont nous en sommes arriv\u00e9s l\u00e0 est assez simple \u00e0 comprendre\u00a0:…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,13],"tags":[40,110],"class_list":["post-478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-inflation","category-taux-dinteret","tag-bce","tag-chomage"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUne p\u00e9riode exceptionnelle - Francais<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat - tant \u00e0 court qu'\u00e0 long terme - se situent \u00e0 des plus bas records en Europe. 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