{"id":5249,"date":"2018-08-21T08:16:37","date_gmt":"2018-08-21T08:16:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/?p=5249"},"modified":"2018-09-11T10:44:10","modified_gmt":"2018-09-11T10:44:10","slug":"hy-spreads-the-story-behind-the-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/2018\/08\/hy-spreads-the-story-behind-the-story\/","title":{"rendered":"Spread HY, dietro le quinte"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Si sta molto parlando della forte contrazione degli spread High Yield USA, in particolare rispetto ai loro pari nell\u2019Investment grade. La differenza tra i due, di 241 punti base (pb), \u00e8 meno della met\u00e0 rispetto a un decennio fa, portando alcuni osservatori di mercato a dedurne rapidamente che l\u2019HY USA sia caro e che pertanto gli investitori dovrebbero preferire le obbligazioni investment grade. Ma \u00e8 tutto qui?<\/p>\n<p>Secondo me c\u2019\u00e8 dell\u2019altro. Come si evince dal primo grafico, anche se \u00e8 un dato di fatto che lo spread tra le due asset class abbia registrato una contrazione negli ultimi 10 anni (linea arancione), \u00e8 vero anche che tale riduzione riflette inoltre una modifica sostanziale al profilo di entrambi: rispetto all\u2019HY, il <strong>rischio tasso di interesse<\/strong> IG \u00e8 aumentato nell\u2019ultimo decennio (linea blu), esponendo maggiormente gli investitori in IG a un ambiente di tassi in aumento, come quello che stanno attualmente attraversando gli Stati Uniti. Questa situazione ha contribuito alla riduzione del divario tra le due asset class.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide1.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-image-0\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5271 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide1.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide1-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide1-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>La contrazione degli spread HY-IG \u00e8 inoltre riconducibile alle considerevoli variazioni della <strong>qualit\u00e0 del credito<\/strong>: come si vede nel grafico di seguito, il rating di credito IG pi\u00f9 modesto, BBB, rappresentava il 33% dell&#8217;asset class 10 anni fa, mentre ora ne rappresenta il 48%. Invece, il segmento CCC, il pi\u00f9 modesto per l\u2019HY, rappresenta attualmente l\u201911,8% dell\u2019universo HY USA, un calo dal 16,2% nel 2008.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide2.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-image-1\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5272 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide2.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide2-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide2-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Oltre ad avere in mano pi\u00f9 rischio in termini di tassi di interesse e qualit\u00e0 del credito, gli investitori IG stanno anche affrontando <strong>fattori tecnici:<\/strong> come si vede nel terzo grafico, l\u2019<strong>emissione IG \u00e8 aumentata in misura stratosferica<\/strong> negli ultimi dieci anni, vista la corsa al mercato delle imprese, attratte da tassi estremamente modesti. Al contempo, l\u2019emissione HY \u00e8 rimasta stabile o \u00e8 calata in quanto l\u2019asset class ha risentito di alcune battute d\u2019arresto, come il crollo dei prezzi petroliferi a fine 2014 (l\u2019energia rappresenta circa il 15% dell\u2019universo HY USA).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide3.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-image-2\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-5273 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide3.png 960w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide3-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/bondvigilantes.com\/italiano\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/slide3-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Con nessuna di queste ragioni si intende mettere in discussione la caccia al rendimento avvenuta in un periodo di stimolo monetario senza precedenti. Ma speriamo di essere riusciti a sottolineare come limitarsi semplicemente a paragonare gli spread IG e HY dell\u2019ultimo decennio sarebbe eccessivamente semplicistico. Pi\u00f9 che mai, il diavolo si nasconde nei dettagli. Gli spread HY sono relativamente pi\u00f9 modesti rispetto all\u2019IG, almeno in parte, in quanto la qualit\u00e0 di credito dell\u2019asset class \u00e8 migliorata, il rischio tassi di interesse \u00e8 complessivamente rimasto invariato e i fattori tecnici non hanno creato particolari difficolt\u00e0.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Si sta molto parlando della forte contrazione degli spread High Yield USA, in particolare rispetto ai loro pari nell\u2019Investment grade. La differenza tra i due, di 241 punti base (pb), \u00e8 meno della met\u00e0 rispetto a un decennio fa, portando alcuni osservatori di mercato a dedurne rapidamente che l\u2019HY USA sia caro e che pertanto gli investitori dovrebbero preferire le obbligazioni investment grade. Ma \u00e8 tutto qui? Secondo me c\u2019\u00e8 dell\u2019altro. Come si evince dal primo grafico, anche se \u00e8 un dato di fatto che&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5271,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,308],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-categorie-obbligazionarie","category-us"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.8 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Spread HY, dietro le quinte - Italian<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Si sta molto parlando della forte contrazione degli spread High Yield USA, in particolare rispetto ai loro pari nell\u2019Investment grade. 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