What Oasis taught me about market signals and credit markets What Oasis taught me about market signals and credit markets

I did an MBA at Chicago Booth in 2006-08 and was lucky enough to attend the classes of three professors who later won the Nobel Prize in Economic Science: Eugene Fama (2013), Richard Thaler (2017) and Douglas Diamond (2022).
Interestingly, Fama and Thaler both won the award, but with contrasting theories. Fama won the award for his efficient market hypothesis, which suggests that stock prices reflect all available information, making it difficult to consistently outperform the market.

Following the global financial crisis, markets appear to react to any macro wobble with a “shoot first, ask questions later” attitude when it came to both banks’ credit and equity prices. From many perspectives, whether it be earnings volatility, balance sheet dynamics, or the quantum and quality of capital, banks have undergone significant transformation and are no longer characterised by the vulnerabilities of the past. Nonetheless, a persistent investment behaviour can predispose investors to revert to outdated reactions to market stress. This behavioural inertia presents a…

The credit rating agency Moody’s introduced a pivotal change to its hybrid capital methodology back in February 2024, one that is quietly reshaping the corporate hybrid landscape. By allowing certain hybrid instruments to be rated just one notch below senior unsecured debt, Moody’s has not only recalibrated the risk-reward profile of these instruments but also catalysed structural innovation and issuance momentum across both sides of the Atlantic.

Markets are once again high on ‘hopium’. Despite a still-strong labour market, sticky inflation, and an economy that refuses to roll over, rate cut bets have surged back into vogue. The Federal Reserve might be saying “higher for longer,” but investors are dancing to a different beat. Why is the market so convinced cuts are coming when the data tells a different story?

Many have written in recent weeks about outflows from ESG funds and a retreat from ESG investing. From my experience, speaking with a large number of institutional investors, I would not describe it as a retreat but rather a reset. Today, investors are shifting their focus away from fund exclusions and moving capital to where it genuinely matters: into targeted, outcome-driven areas like clean energy and improved health.

By the time this article is published, there could be significant changes to Donald Trump’s tariff policies in ways the market is unable to forecast. However, it remains worthwhile to explore how Trump’s trade wars have impacted Southeast Asian economies and could continue to do so.

Southeast Asian economies are strategically important to both China and the United States (US) due to their roles as trading partners, their geographical interests, and particularly, as military bases for the US.

Warner Brothers Discovery is breaking up and bondholders have been left carrying the baby. Specifically, a US$37bn bundle of debt joy that will essentially now be supported by only one half of the business.