Have We Really Learnt the Lessons of the GFC? Have We Really Learnt the Lessons of the GFC?

European natural gas prices are rising again, storage levels are lower than expected, and memories of the 2022 energy crisis remain fresh. But does this really constitute a new energy crisis for Europe, and more importantly for bond investors, does it change the ECB’s policy outlook?

Why aren’t we talking more about El Niño?

In a world of tight credit spreads, one rating bucket flashes value. The European CCC index offers 1,306 bps over government bonds, suggesting generous compensation for taking credit risk.

We previously blogged on which area of government bond curves investors should have exposure to if they want to receive the greatest benefit from the passage of time. In a normal/upwardly sloping yield curve environment, the yield of a bond will fall (and its price will rise) the closer it gets to maturity. Or, as it rolls down the curve.

We are very sorry to share the news that Jim Leaviss passed away on 23 July 2026, aged 55.

For years, Australian residential property has been viewed as a one-way bet. Mention the possibility of falling house prices and you’re often met with disbelief. Population growth, constrained housing supply and a deeply ingrained belief that property always goes up have combined to create one of the most expensive housing markets in the developed world.

And so, the semi-finals have concluded and we have our finalists. Spain and Argentina will face each other in the World Cup Final on Sunday.

Korea is one of the clearer beneficiaries of the global AI investment cycle. Its equity market has reflected that. Its currency and government bond markets have not.

The market increasingly treats LME risk as synonymous with coercion and value transfer. Sponsors have a range of technologies: dropdowns, up-tierings, double dips as well as other non-pro-rata outcomes. In structures with weak protections that instinct is understandable, but increasingly incomplete. Some credits with high LME optionality are delivering negotiated, consensual outcomes that preserve value, and in some cases, unlock upside.

SpaceX’s IPO was a gargantuan event by any measure: US$75 billion proceeds raised, over US$2 trillion enterprise value, and an almost US$29 trillion total addressable market to feast on.  Few other companies can rival its industrial span and potential seismic impact on consumers and competitors. 

A dramatic result for Ecuador, beating Germany to avoid exiting the group stage. Japan and Sweden join them in the next round, while the Australia vs Paraguay draw guaranteed both qualification. Commiserations Tunisia and Turkey, whose World Cup journey comes to an end.

Kevin Warsh walked into his first Fed meeting needing to prove something. The result was predictably hawkish. Rates held steady for the fourth consecutive meeting, but the signal was anything but neutral. Nine policymakers flagged support for higher rates this year, a dramatic shift from March, when not a single member pencilled in a hike.

High but seemingly unstoppable, markets continue to perform strongly despite a series of significant economic and geopolitical shocks. Meanwhile, academic and institutional voices warn that financial vulnerabilities are elevated at a time when policy flexibility is constrained.

Europe’s utilities sector is on the brink of a generational shift. After more than a decade of subdued demand, the system is being forced to modernize, rebuild and expand. Electrification, datacentres, renewable integration and ageing infrastructure are converging into what can only be described as unprecedented capital expenditure programmes across the sector.