The Parable of Goldfinger The Parable of Goldfinger

Good Friday. 7:30 – Woke up to my phone beeping at me: a text from Evri telling me that the cat food delivery would arrive later that morning. Delivery businesses like Evri that serve the domestic UK market should only be marginally impacted by Trump tariffs. Hence, when its 8.125% 2031 bonds were down 3 points in early April, it was a good opportunity to pick up exposure…

In The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, a device known as the Infinite Improbability Drive, consisting of some complicated electronics suspended in a cup of hot tea, enabled instantaneous travel across the universe.

Many governments worldwide face increasing scrutiny over their fiscal affairs, and the UK is no exception. As a result, government cost-saving measures have understandably become a key focus. This blog aims to highlight two notable areas of inefficiency within the gilt market.

It’s only been two months since he took office, but Trump’s policy agenda has taken the world by storm. The new US administration has upended a lot of the norms, standards, institutions, alliances, and indeed most rules of engagement, that we have come to take for granted. The speed, breadth and scale of the attempt to re-orient America’s institutional architecture is unprecedented. Whether intended to be strategic or not, such changeability in policy frameworks is uncommon for developed markets. History would suggest that if the…

In an era of rising geopolitical tensions, many nations are ramping up defence spending to bolster security. However, for countries already burdened with high debt, this creates a fiscal dilemma: how to fund military expansion without worsening financial instability. Nowhere is this debate more pressing than in Europe, where Germany—historically the continent’s fiscal anchor, undertook a historic change to its fiscal policy.

When analysing long-term investments, the primary focus is naturally on the potential total returns. Your final profit is simply a function of the future actual returns of the investment, less the original cost. In the realm of fixed interest bonds, this calculation is relatively straightforward. For instance, you can estimate the likely return using the redemption yield, as the coupon is set, and the redemption date and value are known. This predictability allows for a clear definition and  a strong approximation of future profits. However,…

Admittedly, as a native German speaker, I may be biased. But I genuinely believe that the German language has given the world some of the most ingenious and downright beautiful expressions. And I don’t say that just out of patriotism—words like Schadenfreude and Zeitgeist have become global hits. Now, I think it’s time for investors to forget one German word—Schuldenbremse—and add another one—Sondervermögen—to their vocabulary.

Bond valuations are impacted both by fundamental and technical factors. Active mangers typically have experienced Fund Managers and credit analyst teams to analyse the fundamentals impacting each bond issuer. The focus of this blog will be on the technical factors – which are more in the trading team’s domain.

“How are you going to screw me?”…That’s a question a US investor asked an investment banker who was offering a trade that seemed too good to be true. Michael Lewis told the story in a 2008 article, when, understandably, trust in Wall Street banks wasn’t at its peak. I think it fair to say that, thanks to changes in regulation and culture, many of the games played on investors pre-GFC (Global Financial Crisis) are far less common today (does anyone remember CDO-squareds?). But the banks still have smart people who are capable of finding little gimmicks that make trades look better than they really are at first glance.

This time of year is for thinking about the ones we love. For those of us who spend their working week in the corner of the 7th floor at 10FA, that ‘one’ is bond markets. When I was thinking about what I wanted to say in this blog, I was going to write about ‘what to love about bond markets now’. But of course, you don’t love only someone or something for what they offer right now, you love them throughout the economic cycle. So…

As part of our annual tradition, we reflect on what happens and how the investment world would look when Chinese astrology intersects with the world of finance.  In the Chinese zodiac, the snake symbolises wisdom and agility, while the wood element represents growth, flexibility and tolerance, nurturing the fire element that signifies vitality and change. This year, we focus on the China onshore bond market, where opportunities are emerging as the country continues to forge new paths through economic restructuring. A new skin for China’s…