“Venetians, Volcker and Value-at-Risk: 8 centuries of bond market reversals”. Our interview with Bank Underground’s Paul Schmelzing.

It’s rare to find a piece of writing that EVERYONE in bond markets has read and is talking about, but in January, a blog by Paul Schmelzing on the Bank of England’s excellent Bank Underground site did just that.  Paul is a visiting scholar from Harvard University, working at the Bank of England to research foreign exchange policy in the era of Bretton Woods.  In the blog however he took a very long view of eight hundred years of bull and bear markets in government/risk free bonds.  You can read the blog here.

Paul came in to see us earlier this week to discuss three of the significant bond bear markets we’ve seen in the last 60 years or so, and to consider what the next bond bear market might look like once the “Volcker bull market” eventually comes to an end.

The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Jim Leaviss

Job Title: CIO Public Fixed Income

Specialist Subjects: Macro economics and fixed interest asset allocation

Likes: Cycling, factory records, dim sum

Heroes: Brian Clough, Morrissey, Neil Armstrong

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